Thursday, June 15, 2017

Another British Surprise Election

Conservative British Prime Ministers should stop calling elections. The Brexit referendum cost Prime Minister Cameron his position and this latest snap parliamentary election has ended Theresa May’s political clout, although she may remain in office for now.

Once again, the British polls missed the full late surge of Labour, although they captured the race closing. In my blog of June 7, British ElectionDraws Closer, I cited what most British pundits now agree were the major causes of the upset:
  •  May’s poor campaign performance, Corbyn’s new style and anti-austerity proposals
  •  Conservative election platform problems, Conservatives lost control of the narrative
  •   A still divided electorate and anti-establishment attitudes
Post-election polling data and results refine those general observations with the following:
  •  The youth vote, which failed to show up in the Brexit vote, came out in strength for Labour. They were mostly anti-Brexit and Labour offered a soft Brexit position (keep as many ties as possible, less harsh on immigration). May offered a hard exit from the EU. They also liked Labour’s anti-austerity positions.
  •  The Brexit fight may be over in terms of leaving the EU, but the disagreements on how to do it are just beginning.

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