WorldDenver Event

Monday, February 22nd, WorldDenver is honored to host 7 European visitors at the conclusion of the Denver segment of their U.S. State Department International Visitors Leadership Program (IVLP) titled “U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges.”

Mr. Floyd Ciruli, from Ciruli Associates, a polling and consulting firm that specializes in public policy, will provide a brief introduction and frame current events before the start of the informal discussion. The conversation could include international topics such as the U.S.’s role economically and militarily overseas, as well as domestic issues such as the 2016 presidential campaign, gun control, gay rights, the role of women in the economy, and the recent legalization of marijuana use in the state and other issues.

International guests include:

• (Austria) Mr. Mehdi HAMIDI FAAL - Foreign Affairs Writer/Reporter, Austrian Press Agency and Wiener Zeitung (daily) 
• (Bulgaria) Ms. Miroslava GATEVA - Chief Foreign Policy and International Affairs Expert, National Council, Bulgarian Socialist Party 
• (Estonia) Ms. Aari LEMMIK - Director, International Cooperation Department, Ministry of Defense 
• (Germany) Ms. Viktoria DUEMER - Foreign Policy Editor, Bild (daily) 
• (Latvia) Mr. Andrejs ELKSNINS - Member of Parliament (Harmony Party) 
• (Netherlands) Mr. Marno DE BOER - Political/Defense Editor, Trouw (daily) 
• (Romania) Ms. Veronica ANGHEL - Foreign Affairs Advisor, Department of Foreign Affairs 

When: Monday, February 22nd 2016
Time: 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm
Location: Rocky Mountain PBS Building, Teleconference Room, 1089 Bannock Street Denver, CO 80204

Foreign Policy is a Major Issue in the 2016 Presidential Election

Foreign policy has already become a major topic in the 2016 presidential election.

Both parties’ debates, a cascade of events and polling results have placed America’s position in the world and specific topics, such as the Middle East, terrorism, Iran and the South China Sea, into the public and candidates’ consciences. But regardless of foreign policy topicality, the next president will have significant influence on policy. And the signs are policy could change dramatically.

A panel at the American Association of Public Opinion Research conference in Austin this May has been organized by Floyd Ciruli of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research on foreign policy as a significant issue in the 2016 campaign. Three nationally known researchers will join Ciruli to examine the impact of events, partisanship, elections, media and public opinion on the foreign policy of the next president.

AAPOR Annual Conference

Panel Title: The 2016 Election and Impact on American Foreign Policy

Panel Description: A panel will examine the impact that the 2016 US Presidential election is having on American foreign policy. The topics will include: partisanship’s impact on voter positions on key foreign policy issues; internationalism and militarism in a new world of threats; the panel will include Kathy Frankovic, formerly of CBS News, Robert Shapiro, professor at Columbia University, Dina Smeltz of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research.

First Abstract Title: Is U.S. Foreign Policy Moving to the Right? All Rhetoric or Boots on the Ground?
First Abstract: The 2016 U.S. presidential nomination contest, with a plethora of debates and polls, will be used to describe the likely trajectory of foreign policy in the next administration in several key areas. An overlay with known U.S. opinion will be integrated to identify alignment and disagreement. Discussion will include the likely influences that public opinion will have on policy implementation in the next administration.
Presenter: Floyd Ciruli, Director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, Adjunct Professor, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver

Second Abstract Title: Increasing Ideological and Partisan Conflict in Public Opinion
Second Abstract: This presentation will show in historical perspective how ideological and partisan conflict in American public opinion has increased in the last decades. This conflict has reflected increasing polarization among Republican and Democratic leaders on a stunningly wide and far-reaching range of both foreign and domestic policy issues and perceptions of national problems – and to a degree not seen since opinion polling began in the United States. This has important consequences for American politics and policymaking, and how we think about the role of public opinion. How long this conflict will persist is an important question for the future of the nation.
Presenter: Robert Shapiro, Wallace S. Sayre Professor of Government, Columbia University

Third Abstract Title: Developing a Conservative Foreign Policy
Third Abstract: Many self-described conservatives today favor an interventionist foreign policy. While this year’s GOP candidates take a variety of positions on the role of the United States in the Middle East, there is consistently more support for military action of all sorts among conservatives than among other groups in the population. The paper will examine the differences in positions of the major GOP candidates and their supporters on questions of terrorism and foreign policy.
Presenter: Kathy Frankovic, Consultant, former CBS News Polling Director, Professor, AAPOR President

Fourth Abstract Title: America Divided: A Growing Rift Between and Within the Parties on Foreign Policy
Fourth Abstract: With the world seeming lurching from one international crisis to the next, foreign policy will not doubt play an important role in the 2016 presidential campaign. So it is no wonder that candidates are appealing to their base voters on foreign policy issues such as immigration, terrorism and climate change. But when competing for votes next year in the presidential election, candidates will have to appeal to the median voter, which may be at odds with their base. This presentation will explore partisan differences in Chicago Council’s 40 years of surveys of Americans on foreign policy and demonstrate that partisan differences on these issues have not always been as wide as they are today.
Presenter: Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Conference and the Year of the Outsider

Mark Baldassare

Mark Baldassare, public opinion researcher and President and CEO of California’s leading public policy think tank – the Public Policy Institute of California – joined a group of public opinion pollsters to analyze the 2016 presidential campaign at the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research in December 2015. And excerpt from Mark’s presentation:

Californians’ Views of Political Outsiders
One of the early surprises in the 2016 presidential election is the strength of polling support for primary candidates who have never held elected office. A recent Pew national survey also found that Americans chose "new ideas and a different approach” by a wide margin over "experience and a proven record” when asked what was more important in a presidential candidate (57% to 36%). What are the political ramifications of this emerging national trend for the 2016 California elections?

Californians have a storied history of choosing political outsiders, electing movie stars Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger as their governors. But in the past five years, career politicians have won by wide margins over political outsiders with business credentials. Voters chose Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman and Barbara Boxer over Carly Fiorina in 2010 and Jerry Brown over Neel Kashkari in 2014.

PPIC’s recent polling does not show a swing toward political outsiders among Californians this year either. When we repeated the Pew survey question in a recent PPIC Statewide Survey, California adults were less likely to say they favor new ideas over experience than their national counterparts (51% to 41%). More importantly, California likely voters are closely divided on new ideas versus experience (46% to 44%).

Crossley Students and the Crisis of Refugees

Chelsea Bartholomew and Gina Jannone, Crossley Scholars at the Korbel School of International

Chelsea Bartholomew and Gina Jannone

Studies, presented a poster at the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research in December 2015 on the impact of the Syrian refugee crisis on U.S. and European public opinion and its political and policy impact. An excerpt from the Crossley Scholars panel presentation:

Western Europe:
Although they have faced nowhere near the volume of Syrian refugees as Middle Eastern states that surround the war-torn country, European nations have experienced a significant increase in 2015. Western European leaders and publics, with the exception of the far-right wings of each, have largely been welcoming of these refugees, viewing it as a humanitarian duty to aid them. However, the combination of more and more refugees continuing to pour across borders and last month’s terrorist attacks in Paris appear to be increasingly calling this welcome into question.

United States:
While the disturbing images and stories of refugees fleeing Syria generated notable interest from the American public from a humanitarian perspective, the attacks in Paris, France, and subsequent terror attacks appear to have dominated the debate over increasing the number of Syrian refugees allowed to resettle in the United States. This environment differs in some ways from that of Europe, where the debate over refugees is certainly framed in security terms by far-right political parties, but is also driven by issues of humanitarianism and integration.

Crossley Center Speaker's Series: Marijuana 2016 - National Roll-out or Stall?

Discussion with three opinion leaders at Noon, Feb. 23, at Sie Center

Join an interactive discussion on the current status of the marijuana legalization in Colorado, the prospects for national and international legalization, and the state of public opinion.

•        Denver District Attorney Mitch Morrissey - D.A. for one of the largest jurisdictions to legalize the production, sale, and distribution of recreational marijuana;
•        Political strategist and Korbel School Adjunct Professor Rick Ridder - ran the campaign to legalize recreational marijuana in Colorado and has consulted on legalization in numerous other states and counties; 
•        Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research Director Floyd Ciruli - conducts and tracks public opinion polling on voter attitudes toward marijuana.

The event will be held at Noon, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2016, in Room 150 of the Sie Center on the DU campus. RSVP to Jane Bucher McCoy at jbucher@du.edu, or 303-871-2882.

Pizza will be served.