Friday, March 26, 2021

Biden’s First Multilateral Meeting – The Quad

President Joe Biden’s first multilateral meeting was to host the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) in its first meeting of heads of government since it was founded more than a decade ago. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described the summit of Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. as a “critical part of the architecture of the Indo-Pacific.” 

The Quad has been an informal forum, and some observers point out that the members have different agendas and political cultures, but at the moment, they appear united in concern about China’s expansionist foreign policy. And, the Biden administration has clearly made reviving it a top priority.

At the initial session, the members agreed to a vaccine production and distribution strategy in Asia. Will it become a beginning of a coalition capable of addressing a broader agenda of diplomatic, military and economic initiatives? Could climate change, cyber security and military coordination be on a future agenda?

Fortunately for President Biden, the U.S. public has a very favorable view of Quad members with Gallup’s latest poll showing: Japan 84 percent, Australia 88 percent and India 77 percent. Also, in the recent past, China’s favorability in the developed world collapsed and in particular the U.S. (20%, down from 53% in 2018), mostly due to the handling of COVID-19. The administration has public support to get tough on China. 

The Quad: President Joe Biden (top left), Japanese Prime Minister
Yoshihide Suga, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime
Minister Scott Morrison participate in the virtual Quad meeting,
March 12, 2021 | Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Diplomacy Program: Japan and the U.S.

As the Biden Administration works to reset foreign policy, Asia is now its primary international relations arena. Japan remains a critical ally and attention on China intensifies. With the revival of the Quad group (a coalition involving Japan, India, Australia and the U.S.), Secretary of State visits to allies Japan and South Korea, and an opening exchange with China, an ascending Asia now takes on momentous significance.

In order to explore this development, the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research’s program on Asian foreign policy is now underway. The speakers’ series, sponsored with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver, is in its second year of open dialogue between Japanese and American professors on the Japanese-American alliance and issues surrounding the Indo-Pacific region.

Four panel discussions during the next two weeks will highlight major issues taking place in Asian foreign policy. The program begins on Tuesday, March 23rd, with a dialogue on the impact of sports on international politics – including, of course, the Tokyo Olympics. Next, on Wednesday, March 24th, a panel will take up the challenges of maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and will specifically focus on China. On Monday, March 29th, speakers will discuss the newly revived Quad concept that includes Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. The program will conclude on Wednesday, March 31st, with a panel on the U.S.-Japan alliance and defense policy.

Four Panel Discussions on a Free and Open Indo-Pacific

Sports and International Politics 

The 2020 Olympics and Paralympic games were postponed for the first time in history due to the coronavirus. But, Japan is committed to the games in the summer of 2021. It is a powerful reminder of the importance countries attach to hosting and participating in international sporting events. Join a conversation on value, importance and impact of the Olympics and international sports on foreign policy with U.S. and Japanese experts.

March 23, 2021 on Zoom 
5:00 pm MT 

Free and Open Indo-Pacific and China 

A free and open Indo-Pacific from the Northern Pacific to India is a diplomatic, economic and national security goal of the U.S., Japan, and its friends and allies around the world. The challenges it faces from China’s broad claims of sovereignty and hostile behavior and aggressive rhetoric witnessed in Hong Kong, Taiwan, the South China Sea and elsewhere is the topic of this panel of experts from the Korbel School and Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan.

March 24, 2021 on Zoom 
5:00 pm MT 

Free and Open Indo-Pacific: The Quad 

Join a conversation with experts from the U.S. and Japan on the potential for a joint strategy and unified actions on important issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Can Japan, the U.S., Australia and India be a defender of the rule of law and democratic values? 

March 29, 2021 on Zoom 
5:00 pm MT 
REGISTER HERE

U.S. and Japan Alliance and Defense Policy

From the East China Sea to the South China Sea, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, the risk of conflict has increased in recent years. Join a conversation with leading foreign policy and diplomatic experts from Japan and the U.S. on the threats and options for the U.S.-Japan alliance.

March 31, 2021 on Zoom 
5:00 pm MT 
REGISTER HERE

Monday, March 22, 2021

Diplomacy Program: Japan and the U.S.

As the Biden Administration works to reset foreign policy, Asia is now its primary international relations arena. Japan remains a critical ally and attention on China intensifies. With the revival of the Quad group (a coalition involving Japan, India, Australia and the U.S.), Secretary of State visits to allies Japan and South Korea, and an opening exchange with China, an ascending Asia now takes on momentous significance.

In order to explore this development, the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research’s program on Asian foreign policy is now underway. The speakers’ series, sponsored with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver, is in its second year of open dialogue between Japanese and American professors on the Japanese-American alliance and issues surrounding the Indo-Pacific region.

Four panel discussions during the next two weeks will highlight major issues taking place in Asian foreign policy. The program begins on Tuesday, March 23rd, with a dialogue on the impact of sports on international politics – including, of course, the Tokyo Olympics. Next, on Wednesday, March 24th, a panel will take up the challenges of maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and will specifically focus on China. On Monday, March 29th, speakers will discuss the newly revived Quad concept that includes Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. The program will conclude on Wednesday, March 31st, with a panel on the U.S.-Japan alliance and defense policy.

Tokyo Needs Its Olympics

Nations fight to host an Olympics, and after an unprecedented one-year delay, Japan intends on the event being a success. In fact, the government’s survival may depend on the game’s success. And for all the effort to revive and manage the games in a pandemic, the Japanese public is not very appreciative. They fear the COVID-19 risk from thousands of visitors and the $25 billion cost. As of the weekend, overseas spectators have been banned.

The Japanese government, like host cities around the world (Paris in 2024), see economic benefit and international prestige. These games will be more virtual than attended, but if the government and Olympics Committee make it a success, there will be much appreciation – the athletes and citizens of the world are ready for it.


Tokyo, Japan | Getty Images

Friday, March 19, 2021

Sports and International Politics – March 23

The 2020 Olympics and Paralympic games were postponed for the first time in history due to the coronavirus. But, Japan is committed to the games in the summer of 2021. It is a powerful reminder of the importance countries attach to hosting and participating in international sporting events. Some questions to consider:

  • Olympics – A success for Japan and government or disaster?
  • Olympics – A mass participant event? Any spectators?
  • Olympics – Generate good will or demonstrations?
  • Olympics – Boycott of Beijing?

Join the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies for a conversation on value, importance and impact of the Olympics and international sports on foreign policy.

Leading foreign policy experts from the Korbel School and from Doshisha University in Kyoto, Japan will provide analyses on what the games mean for countries, athletes and the world. The program will be moderated by FLOYD CIRULI, director of the Crossley Center.

Join us on Zoom
March 23, 2021
5:00 pm MT

REGISTER HERE


Tokyo, Japan | Getty Images

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

CNN Says Ten Competitive Senate Seats in 2022, Bennet Not Much

The senate races of 2022 will be a battle for control of the evenly divided body. Democrats will be at risk in an off-year election that historically are difficult for the party newly holding the White House.

A recent analysis by CNN lists the 2022 senate seats by their expected level of competition, and Michael Bennet is considered safe. The top ten seats are divided evenly between the two parties. The Cook Report agrees.

Democrats want to hold what they have and possibly add the open seats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina or defeat hyper-conservative incumbent Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. Democrats have a number of vulnerable seats up, but are most concerned about winning a repeat of the Georgia race for newly elected Senator Warnock.

Based on recent voter behavior in Colorado and the Republican Party’s post 2020 disarray, none of the national observers believe Michael Bennet is above tenth on the list of ten most vulnerable seats.

See Colorado Politics: Is Michael Bennet Safe or is 2022 an Upset Year?

First Presidential Primary Poll Has Pence and DeSantis Tied (After Trump)

Not surprising, in a credible Republican national poll of March 2, 2021, Donald Trump has only a narrow majority (51%) among Republican voters, but still dominates the field, with Mike Pence (9%) and Ron DeSantis (7%) in second and third. Among the remaining non-Trump voters, Nikki Haley (6%), Mitt Romney (5%) and Ted Cruz (3%) trail. 

Trump voters when asked their second-place choice, Pence (22%) and DeSantis (22%) tied for the lead. Cruz comes in a close third at 19 percent. Well back in single digits are Mike Pompeo (5%), Haley (5%) and Kristi Noem (4%). 

When all Republicans were asked who they support without Trump as a candidate, Pence (19%), DeSantis (17%) and Cruz (13%) still lead the field. Let the race begin.


Read Politico: DeSantis and Pence Tied in New Poll of Trump Voters

Baby Boomers Are Now Conservatives Compared to Generation Z

A new poll from Ipsos shows that Baby Boomers, who from the mid-1960s were the generation of political and cultural change and activism, now represent the conservative norms compared to the newest Generation Z and Millennials (groups about 40 years old and younger). 

When asked about sexual orientation, 84 percent of Baby Boomers (aged 56 to 74) said “only attracted to opposite sex,” but only 52 percent of the new Generation Z (23 years old and younger) agreed and 42 percent said attraction is to same, both or not exclusively the opposite sex. (Millennials (24 to 40 years old) were also more likely to express less exclusive attraction to the opposite sex.

With gay marriage and transsexual rights generating considerable political controversy, age will be a major predictor of behavior and attitudes. 

Russian Aggression a Challenge for Biden

Seven years after Russia, under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership, seized the Crimea (Feb. 27, 2014), the Biden White House issued a statement defining U.S. policy adopted in concert with European allies that:

“The United States does not and will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of the peninsula, and we will stand with Ukraine against Russia’s aggressive acts.”

The Crimea annexation and Ukraine attack was part of an exceptionally low point in the Barack Obama presidency. The failure to take action over Labor Day in 2013 related to Syria’s use of chemical weapons was generally judged a strategic failure and American intelligence and diplomats appeared unprepared for the Ukraine crisis. Secretary of State Kerry misjudged Russian intentions, repeatedly offering an off-ramp to Foreign Minister Lavrov, who was looking for the fast lane. ISIS was also beginning to form in Syria and parts of Iraq that would draw the U.S. back in after the 2011 withdrawal of forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center; Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu,
left; and the commander of the Western Military District Anatoly
Sidorov, right, March 3, 2014 | Photo: AP

Russian aggression against democracy has accelerated since then with election interference where possible and frequent hacks of national security infrastructure. Also, it’s clear the Putin and United Russia model of authoritarian leadership is not going away as opponents and demonstrators are swept away and locked up when possible.

President Biden and Secretary Blinken should be ready for more Russian challenges to the West and specifically the U.S.

Congresspersons Greene and Newman Confrontation Highlights National Divisions on Transgender Identity

Marjorie Taylor Greene doesn’t support transgender equality legislation in Congress, and offices across from Marie Newman, who does and has a transgender child. They are now participating in a battle of signs and flags outside their offices expressing their views. Newman’s transgender pink and blue flag was met by Greene’s “There are TWO genders MALE & FEMALE...Trust the Science.”

A new poll captures the partisan differences among the American public on the concept of transgender identity. Half the public agrees strongly that there are only two genders – male and female – but it varies greatly by party.

Democrats are nearly evenly divided between “strong agreement” and “strong disagreement” whereas Republicans have mostly traditional values on the issue. Will the attitude evolve in the next several years similar to acceptance of gay marriage?

There is considerable supportive messaging for transgender rights, including in the Biden administration. Also, Millennials and Generation Zs are much more liberal on gender issues and are beginning to shift public opinion.

Trump Could Have Won

An examination of the 2020 election results makes clear Donald Trump may have been swamped in the popular vote, but nearly won the electoral vote.

Trump’s final charge got the vote razor thin in several states. Joe Biden only carried Arizona by 10,457, Georgia by 11,779 and Wisconsin by 20,662.

The factors that appear to have made the difference:

  • Trump’s poor rating on managing the coronavirus was slightly more important than his good scores on the economy.
  • Trump’s personality flaws, which dampened his voter approval for four years, combined with his inability to damage Biden’s reputation with attacks and scandals.
  • Trump’s final Election Day surge was matched by Biden’s mail and early votes.
  • A small libertarian vote, which he did not get in Wisconsin, Georgia or Arizona, could have made a difference.

Biden Holds His Approval

Joe Biden’s focus on the virus and general effort to lower the temperature in Washington are getting favorable reviews in the polls and with the public. As of March 1st, slightly over 30 days into his presidency, Biden is holding his approval level at 54 percent, one point down from his opening approval on January 28 of 55 percent. Disapproval moved up from 37 percent to 40 percent. Four years ago at this point, Donald Trump’s approval was 10 points lower (44%) and disapproval 10 points higher (50%) in the RealClearPolitics average.

Numerous polls show Biden’s relief package is a high priority for the public and highly supported. One interesting new poll of battleground state swing voters (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) reports 66 percent are concerned government won’t do enough in the relief package and 72 percent want to help as many as possible as quickly as possible. The poll notes that it doesn’t affect their level of approval if Republicans don’t support the legislation. Voters want Biden to treat Republicans with respect, not necessarily defer to their viewpoint.

As of now, Biden is winning with the relief package without Republicans.

Electoral and Popular Vote Drifting Out of Alignment

The Bush vs. Gore fight in 2000 highlighted a U.S. presidential election anomaly that was thought rare. But, it was just a minor forerunner to the massive misalignment in 2016, from 544,000 votes in 2000 to 2.9 million in 2016. 

And even in 2020 where the popular vote winner won the electoral vote, the 7 million popular vote advantage only provided a 44,000 vote cushion in three states – Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin – to secure Joe Biden’s narrow Electoral College win over Donald Trump. The dysfunctional system has become a part of Trump’s claim that the 2.9 million votes he lost in 2016 were undocumented citizens and, of course, the “Big Lie” in 2020 that 7 million votes were fraudulently obtained.

Trump and Turnover in National Security

Former President Trump had major conflicts with several of his cabinet members and senior staff. There were six people in four years as National Security Advisors. General Flynn had the shortest term in history (24 days) and will no doubt be one of the most famous (or infamous). Two were short-term acting and three survived at least a year: H.R. McMaster, John Bolton and Robert O’Brien, who handled the transition.

Among the seven people who held the title of Defense Secretary, only two had any longevity and were confirmed by the Senate – General Jim Mattis, Trump’s first, and Mark Esper, almost his final (fired shortly after the November election). Both had strained relationships that deteriorated after leaving office.

The national security jobs of Defense Secretary and National Security Adviser had to deal with both the President’s management style, for example, not caring for traditional briefings and communicating by tweets, but also major shifts in previous policy. Mattis’ final disagreement was about Syria. Esper’s relationship became strained as he resisted using the military for the law and order aspects of Trump’s re-election campaign.

Trump also had difficulty getting comfortable with a chief of staff. Not surprising since Trump was not someone who wanted orderly management. He reveled in the spontaneous, the casual and the chaotic. Reince Priebus, the head of the Republican National Committee, was his first, mostly as a nod to the Republican establishment. Priebus made it to July 2017. Former General John Kelly served for a year and a half, leaving as the relationship became increasingly strained. He departed a day after his friend and colleague General Mattis exited Defense. Trump then turned to the Freedom Caucus in Congress and selected Mick Mulvaney (moved out as COVID-19 and campaign became dominant) and finally Mark Meadows, who served during the campaign (started in March 2020) and transition. Staffing an administration and White House is never easy, but the Trump revolving door and general chaos was unprecedented in the modern era.

Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and White Nationalists Become America’s Greatest Threats

Americans believe the “greatest threats to U.S. security” today are U.S.-based violent white nationalists groups, eclipsing ISIS, al Qaeda and left-wing extremist groups. Only China, as a foreign power, ranks as a top threat primarily because Republicans name it as their primary threat to U.S. security.

Most recently, the militant far-right groups – the Proud Boys, made famous by former President Trump in his first debate (“stand back and stand by”), and the Oath Keepers – have been most visibly identified by the FBI and arrested as extremist groups that were significantly involved with the riot at the U.S. Capitol on January 6. The President, Congress and the Justice Department (Merrick Garland) have all made violent extremism their top priority for law enforcement.

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Register Now! March 23 Zoom Event: Sports And International Politics

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver, has been sponsoring a two-year program of open dialogue between Japanese and American professors on the Japanese-American alliance and the Indo-Pacific region.

The 2021 program will begin on March 23 with Sports and International Politics. The Olympics to be held in Japan this summer provides a powerful reminder of the importance countries attach to hosting and participating in international sporting events. Korbel Professor Tim Sisk will join Professor Koji Murata of Doshisha University in Kyoto for analyses of the event and its impact on foreign policy. Also participating will be Korbel School PhD student Chuck Aoki, a decorated Paralympian in wheelchair rugby. 

Join us on Zoom
March 23, 2021
5:00 pm MT


Tokyo, Japan

Monday, March 15, 2021

U.S. Adds 100,000 to Death Toll in 30 Days

In Joe Biden’s first 30 days in office, 100,000 more Americans have died from COVID-19. At the inaugural, the RealClearPolitics death toll was 411,000. Biden, of course, starting in his inaugural speech, has made the virus his top priority with more vaccines, vaccinations and regular reports of benchmarks. 

The worldwide toll continues to increase, up 450,000 in the last 30 days, with Mexico moving into third place, ahead of India and behind Brazil.

The recent surges in infections, hospitalizations and deaths are having effects on the economy and have pushed back the worldwide recovery in travel. The industry was hopeful that by the end of 2021 some recovery would be seen. But in a new poll, industry officials and experts in 20 countries now put significant recovery more likely in 2022 or later.

California Jumps Ahead of New York as the State With the Most Fatalities

California’s death toll (49,000) now exceeds historic leader, New York (47,000). Although the holiday surge appears over and vaccinations and immunity is up, most experts believe the virus and its variants will be a deadly threat throughout 2021.

It is already a political threat with the governor of California near a possible recall election over handling of the virus. Early hero in the fight, Andrew Cuomo in New York, is embedded in a major controversy about reporting nursing home deaths.

The political danger of the virus is not a surprise. Former President Trump’s defeat in November is significantly attributed to his subpar performance in handling the virus. Joe Biden designed his campaign of medical science and empathy to specifically offer a contrast.

Biden Has a Honeymoon

President Trump never had a honeymoon with the public as he took over in January 2017. But, most presidents begin with positive ratings, and a new CNBC economic survey shows Joe Biden starts his presidency with 62 percent approval, 18 points ahead of Trump (44%) at the same time in his presidency. CNBC compares the three most recent presidents’ post-inauguration polls and their December first year polls. The message is that approval can change dramatically. Interesting, Trump’s approval started and stayed low, but it seldom changed much. He had a low ceiling and high floor. By April of his first year, his disapproval jumped from the mid-40s percent to about 55 percent, where it tended to remain for four years. The following is commentary on four presidents’ approval ratings their first years.



Impeachment Vote Lines Up With Public Opinion

In the most recent Gallup poll (2-2-21), 52 percent of the American people favored conviction and 45 percent opposed, close to the Senate vote of 57 to 43 for acquittal. Of course, the conviction required two-thirds (66 votes). Post impeachment trial saw a spike in support for conviction. An ABC News/Ipsos poll showed 58 percent post trial favored conviction.

Even the Republican Senate vote roughly corresponded to the Gallup poll. Forty-three Republicans out of 50 voted for conviction, or 86 percent. The poll recorded 88 percent of Republicans identified favoring acquittal (14%, or 7 for conviction, the poll had 10%).

Impeachment Over, But Trump Still Burden for Republican Party

Although some Republican leadership is trying to get distance from Donald Trump, witness the votes of Senators Burr, Cassidy, Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse and Tommey, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s excoriating criticism of Trump’s behavior as being “practically and morally responsible for the riot,” the Republican rank and file still cling to Trump’s and the far-right wing conspiracy theories of what happened.

In a recent survey reported in the Washington Post, 66 percent of Republicans believe Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was not legitimate and only 15 percent believe Trump was responsible for the riot, 50 percent believe Antifa “was mostly responsible for the violence” and 29 percent believe QAnon’s premise that Trump had been secretly fighting a group of child sex traffickers, including prominent Democratic and Hollywood elites.


See: After the ballots are counted: Conspiracies, political violence, and American exceptionalism

Friday, March 12, 2021

Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research: Report on Discussions in Diplomacy Program with Japanese Professors

Free and Open Indo-Pacific a Top U.S. Foreign Policy Challenge

Although the Biden administration is, of course, focused on the domestic challenges of the pandemic and economy, a critical issue that will demand its attention for the foreseeable future is ensuring a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”

The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, with the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies and the Consulate-General of Japan in Denver, has been sponsoring a two-year program of open dialogue between Japanese and American professors on the Japanese-American alliance and the Indo-Pacific region.

The program began just before the pandemic took hold in March 2020 and continued through the fall and winter on Zoom. The four programs held thus far include:

  • “Japan-China-U.S. and Japan’s vision for the Indo-Pacific.” Feb. 4, 2020. Participants: Minister Noriyuki Shikata, Prof. Suisheng Zhao, Dean Fritz Mayer (intro and discussant) and Prof. Floyd Ciruli (moderator)
  •  “Japan-U.S. Alliance and the 2020 Election.” March 2-3, 2020. Participants: Prof. Koji Murata, Researcher Dina Smeltz, Prof. Suisheng Zhao, Amb. Christopher Hill, Dean Fritz Mayer (welcome) and Prof. Floyd Ciruli (moderator)
  • “Foreign Policy Impact of Election: U.S. and Japan.” Nov. 11, 2020. Participants: Prof. Toshihiro Nakayama, Amb. Chris Hill and Prof. Floyd Ciruli (moderator)
  •  “The United Nations: Japan and U.S. in the Suga, Biden Era.” Dec. 9, 2020. Participants: Prof. Tim Sisk, Prof. Akiko Fukushima and Prof. Floyd Ciruli (moderator)