Tillerson Gone?

“One by one, our old friends are gone. Death – natural or not – 

prison-deported.” (Johnny Ola, The Godfather Part II, 1974)

President Donald Trump smiles at Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
after he was sworn in in the Oval Office of the White House, Feb. 1, 2017 | AP

Although there were skeptics, Rex Tillerson began his term as Secretary of State with much of the foreign policy establishment hopeful his international business experience, corporate management and more mainstream viewpoints would make him effective in leading the agency.

He has been broadly judged a failure. Some of the problems have been his own making, but most are reflective of the President and the administration. On a host of levels, Tillerson was given an agency the President did not like and intended on diminishing in a world that is considerably more challenging than when President Obama began his term.

Can Tillerson make the one year anniversary on January 20, 2018?

See The Buzz:

What chaos?

Bannon about to join Flynn?

The National Dashboard – Trump and Republicans in Trouble

The November 8 election results, when combined with exit polling, confirm that the President’s tone and language have become a liability that Democrats are exploiting. Trump’s presence so dominates current politics, Republicans can’t separate from him, and if they try, anger his base. Twelve months is a long time, but the Virginia governor’s race, in particular, highlighted that the historic metrics used to predict elections have not been suspended in the Trump era.

Trump is treating his approval rating like a reality show rating. Thirty percent of the cable TV market is high, but in a two-party political environment, it’s doom, which is what happened on Tuesday night.

One year ago, Trump won the presidency with 46 percent of the vote. He began his administration with 44 percent approval on January 20, 2017. Today, he is regularly in the mid-thirty percent range. Trump’s strategy of playing his base everyday has contracted his support. And even some of those voters are losing interest. He either changes strategy or takes the party into minority status 12 months from now.

The Dashboard we maintain to track the major indicators are all flashing red warnings for the President and Republicans.

Presidential Approval. His approval rating is at a record-low at 38 percent. Approval is the most potent metric, especial when the president is high profile with specific vulnerables – Trump by definition.

Congress. Congressional approval is also at historic lows – 14 percent, and when combined with a generic ballot indicator of metrics, 7 percent. The sense in 2018, as of today, looks like s worse election.

DOW. The President likes to cite the record-level DOW. It is his best number, but stock indexes can become volatile. The public is also capable of ignoring it when they see behavior or results (or a lack of) they don’t like.

House. The Democrats need 24 seats to take the House and put Nancy Pelosi in charge, including of investigations.

Senate. Democrats need three seats and have to hold ten that are vulnerable. It was not thought likely they could do both, but if Steve Bannon really wants to damage the party by attacks against incumbents, anything is possible.

The Great Dictator

President Trump is impressed with his friend President Xi’s recent coronation as paramount leader of China.

Indeed, Xi has exceeded all the leaders of Communist China except Mao. He is today the most powerful authoritarian ruler in the world, both because of his consolidation of power in China and because of the country’s dynamic economy. But Xi’s standing is even greater due to his vision, which he is implementing through a newly empowered and invigorated Communist Party.

As Xi made plain in his 3.5 hour speech to the Party Congress, he intends on the nation to be a great modern “socialist” state in the center of world affairs and dominate in its own near territory (i.e., the waters, islands and neighbors in the Far East).

Trump’s goals of dealing with the North Korean threat and trade imbalances are worthwhile tactics, but his nationalism and isolationism makes it near impossible for America to lead on alliances and multi-lateral trade that is necessary to counter China and establish America’s strategy in the Far East.

Korbel School Sponsors Third Session on Trump Presidency – One Year After the Trump Election: Is America Great Again?

Chris Hill and Floyd Ciruli deconstruct the impact on American democracy and foreign policy one year after the election of Donald J. Trump. Join us in Maglione Hall on November 1 for the two-hour session. The presentation is the third in a series that began the day after the election (Nov. 9) and continued on May 1 at the administration’s 100 days mark. The event will be held at the Korbel School as Dean and former Ambassador Hill begins his new campus-wide duties as special advisor to the Chancellor for international engagement and a professor of diplomacy.

For more information and to register for the event, click here

The New Chinese Politburo

Xi Jinping will be China’s principal leader for another five years, even though China still maintains a veneer of collective leadership represented by the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. At 64 years old, Xi is like most members, a Baby Boomer born in 1953. Xi has strengthened the grip of the party, purged or sidelined rivals, and could break recent precedent and remain president for a third five-year block, or until 2027. He would be over 70 years old, the nominal retirement age for Politburo Standing Committee members. But by not selecting any member less than 60 years old, Xi signaled no replacement was being groomed for a transition.

The 2017 Chinese National Congress marks the beginning of the Xi era. His leadership team is in place. In a three and one-half hour speech, Xi presented a vision for not five, but 30 years in which he sees China as a “great modern socialist country” at the center stage of the world and a new authoritarian model for other developing countries to follow. He believes the West is dispirited, divided and distracted while China is a confident, growing power. In a final act before adjournment, the party faithful amended the party constitution to add Xi’s thoughts as a guiding principal: “socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era.”

Although the entire production looks solid, it has a fragile base. Xi is attempting to instill ideological discipline with dated Marxism and strict Leninism to justify the party and its exclusive hold on power. But legitimacy is mostly based on satisfaction with the direction of the economy and improved quality of life. In fact, Xi and his team must work every day to ensure growth and the distribution of its benefits like every other great state. It is not clear Xi’s latest modification of the model can do it.

It is also unlikely that the world’s largest, most opaque and most repressive political party will become a model welcomed by most countries, regardless of Xi’s personal charisma or China’s public relations tools.

Guns are a Tough Issue for Americans

Dealing with gun issues in America is complicated. The public has strong feelings about guns and many are contradictory. Cultural anthropologists and sociologists cite the American experience as shaping the nation’s views on guns. It begins as European immigrants in a wilderness, and continues with the nation’s aggressive expansion across the continent. Add to the national experience, a media culture crowded with depictions of gun violence and the high rate of gun ownership (42% report being in a household with a gun, Pew, June 2017). Finally, the Second Amendment being included in the Constitution at the founding has made the gun issue a right.

Polling concerning guns must also deal with the cross currents and passion. The public’s viewpoints are affected if the questions treat the issue as gun control, gun rights or gun safety. Questions concerning a general restriction produce different results than questions focused on specifics, such as registration. And, the timing of the inquiry is critical, with the horror of a shooting causing spikes in opinions that decay quickly. And today, of course, partisanship has a major effect on Americans’ positions.

Within these challenges, it’s possible to view patterns of agreement on public policy. In a recent Quinnipiac poll, the public showed its division on a general question about stricter gun laws – 54 percent yes and 42 percent no. But on a question asking about a specific restriction, the public offered overwhelming support – 94 percent yes. A comparison of the two questions showed 39 percent of the public that opposed stricter laws, in fact, support background checks.

The American people would welcome reasonable gun restrictions. The gridlock of the congressional system is contributing to the decline in confidence in Congress.

Bannon: Keeper of the Promises

Before he was removed by General Kelly, Steve Bannon’s cluttered West Wing office had a wall of sticky notes with the promises that he used to track President Trump’s program from January 20, 2017, starting with rejecting the TPP trade pact to approving the XL Pipeline. Although nearly all of the promises kept are executive orders and not supported by legislation, there are many changes in regulations related to business, the environment and education that are having a major effect.

Bannon, now the political freelancer, has transferred that mission to a war on the Republican congressional establishment for their failure to follow up with legislation on core issues, such as health care and immigration, including the border wall.

The power of the Bannon strategy is that Trump voters are overwhelmingly in alignment with Trump’s performance and his agenda. Bannon can indeed probably use them as a wrecking ball.

The Trump voter is with him on Russia, terrorism, his temperament and taking a knee.

Colorado Politics – DACA Deal Dead?

It seemed too good to be true. Briefly, it appeared Washington could settle an immigration issue that has lingered for years harming young people, while more than 80 percent of the American people supported a resolution. But quickly, the bipartisan agreement was dashed by White House demands for immigration security proposals well known to be unacceptable to Democrats.

In a weekly article in Colorado Politics, the latest polling is reviewed, highlighting the benefits to both parties to find a majority for compromise.

• President gets a bipartisan deal and solves a problem to his credit
• Democrats serve a constituency, compromise on some but limited border security proposals
• Republicans want a solution that attracts sufficient votes in the House and Senate to get border and immigration funding (no wall) 
• Both parties relieve some gridlock. Of course, the extremes in both parties are unhappy.

Is the DACA deal dead?

On September 13, President Trump met with the minority leaders of their respective houses, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, over a meal of Chinese food. Reportedly, they agreed to a deal on DACA, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which included more border security without building a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border. Though there were immediate disputes as to what was agreed to, the session offered some hope for a resolution to an immigration problem that has dogged the federal government for at least half a decade. More than 800,000 individuals are affected by a program started in the Obama administration in 2013 to protect mostly young illegal immigrants. DACA took form as it became clear that broader immigration reform was not possible.

Unfortunately for the September 13 deal, the White House has returned with a proposal that includes limits to legal immigration, sanctuary city punishment and border wall funding – all non-starters for Democrats.