López Obrador Will Win and Mexico Will Lose

Andrés Manuel López Obrador | teleSUR

In a panel sponsored by WorldDenver May 3, the top Mexican pollsters declared the left-leaning populist candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, will win the July 1 Mexican presidential election.

At that point, polls showed him at 49 percent. In fact, compared to recent previous presidential elections that have provided the winner with less than 40 percent, Obrador could win in a landslide above 50 percent.

López Obrador lost two presidential elections, at least partially because people feared his brand of politics was too close to the Latin American dictator model – a Mexican Hugo Chávez. But, fear is being blunted today by a greater anxiety seen in many western democracies, reflected in anger at corruption, the economic inequality and, in Mexico’s case, the level of violence. The target of the anger are the established parties, typically center-right and center-left that have held responsibility of governance for many years.

In his third try, López Obrador is benefiting from the same anger that put Donald Trump into office. Ironically, Trumps is helping López Obrador. Protecting Mexico’s sovereignty and demanding respect are López Obrador’s top issues.

The panelists were descriptive and rather insouciant of his presidential win. In fact, Obrador is bad news for democracy.

• He has a record of using extra-legal confrontational activities, such as shutting down the government in 2006 when he lost by less than 1 percent (35.31%).
• He likely will not have a majority in the Congress, but a mandate from the people. Most of his authority will flow from executive power. He is a populist, unlikely to be overly restrained by norms or precedence.
• He is the least committed among the main candidates to free markets and the most committed to government control over major economic sectors, especially oil. He will expand government and spend money.
• He tends toward nationalism (sovereignty rhetoric), isolationism and disinterest in promoting human rights and democracy.
• Mexican democracy is new. The first competitive election was in 1994, or barely 20 years ago. López Obrador will test it. 

Fifty Years Later, Race Issues as Polarizing Today as in 1968

Race divides America as profoundly today as the time of Martin Luther King Jr.’s death in 1968. A couple of recent polls show the continuing divide between black and white Americans.

Although most Americans see Martin Luther King Jr. as a significant historical figure (80% overall, 78% White, 90% Black) and that some of his civil rights goals were achieved, there is a significant difference among the races in views as to whether most of his civil rights goals were achieved. More than a third (36%) of Whites believe nearly all the civil rights goals were achieved, but only a quarter (27%) of Blacks.

The civil rights focus prior to and during 1968 had been on voting rights, segregation in public life (housing, jobs, public accommodations, schools, etc.) and poverty. African Americans believe some progress has been made in those areas, although not much in eliminating poverty. Whites agree, but are generally more positive on the level of progress.

It is treatment by police and the criminal justice system where both blacks and whites believe the least progress has been made. An Associated Press-NORC poll shows:

The civil rights struggle continues to be influenced by the events in 1968. Jesse Jackson and Andrew Young remember the day when Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated (April 4, 1968). They were with him at the Lorraine Motel, 50 years younger. They both believe King’s moral authority survives to help the U.S. and worldwide struggle for human rights.

See:
CBS New: Americans view MLK as important, but believe only some of his goals have been achieved
AP-NORC: 50 years after Martin Luther King’s assassination: Assessing progress of the civil rights movements

Race and Reaction: 1968 and 2018 Differences and Similarities

America’s difficult race relations are not always rated a top issue, but are forever important. In 1968, the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. ended a period of considerable progress, at least from Washington D.C., on civil rights. But, it had been accompanied with considerable conflict and confrontation.

With the death of King, the civil rights movement splintered between advocates of change within the system and those without between non-violence and a more confrontational strategy. Combined with riots that accompanied his death, a massive backlash developed that helped generate the law and order campaign of Richard Nixon and the success of Alabama governor, George Wallace.

Today, race relations continue to be a high-profile issue, with most attention on police-citizen confrontations. Politics of race is still polarized, with Donald Trump staking out his own law and order strategy and taking on defending the police, confederate statues and opposing kneeling football players.

The following chart makes some comparisons on race and reactions in 1968 and 2018. Join us May 8 to remember, compare and contrast.

1968: A Year of Turmoil and Transition
Denver Press Club
1330 Glenarm Place
Tuesday, May 8
Social Hour – 5:30 pm
Panel and presentation – 6:30 pm (no charge)

Pollster Floyd Ciruli and the Denver Press Club host a panel on 1968 and how it compares to 2018.

Panelists:
Wellington Webb – Former mayor of Denver, civil rights activist
Polly Baca – Democratic and civil rights activist, in LA and Chicago in 1968
Dick Wadhams – Republican campaign consultant and activist
Floyd Ciruli – Pollster, professor and in LA in 1968

War and Peace: 1968 and 2018. Different and Similar.

The turmoil and tragedies of 1968 has been described as a turning point in American politics, and indeed, once it was over, the next decade felt very different. Vietnam and domestic demonstrations were mirrored in the radical split among foreign policy elites who had been part of the Cold War consensus.

In 2018, there is considerable anxiety about American foreign policy and specific confrontations, but there are no demonstrations on the streets. Isolationism affects both parties, whereas in 1968, the Democrats became the anti-war/intervention party. In 1968, the military was denigrated by many young demonstrators. Today, they are the most respected profession and in many high government posts.

One similarity was the demographic transition of Baby Boomers becoming voting and draft age in 1968 and Millennials surging into the electorate today.

The following chart makes some comparisons on war and peace in 1968 and 2018. Join us May 8 to remember, compare and contrast.

1968: A Year of Turmoil and Transition
Denver Press Club
1330 Glenarm Place
Tuesday, May 8
Social Hour – 5:30 pm
Panel and presentation – 6:30 pm (no charge)

Pollster Floyd Ciruli and the Denver Press Club host a panel on 1968 and how it compares to 2018.

Panelists;
Wellington Webb – Former mayor of Denver, civil rights activist
Polly Baca – Democratic and civil rights activist, in LA and Chicago in 1968
Dick Wadhams – Republican campaign consultant and activist
Floyd Ciruli – Pollster, professor and in LA in 1968

Is National Legalization of Marijuana Use Inevitable?

Although polls in Colorado make clear the vote to legalize marijuana would pass again, possibly by somewhat more than the 55 percent in 2012, there remains resistance to widespread use in some Colorado communities and demographic and political groups. Nationally, polls show majority support for legalization, but also with states, populations and politics remaining resistant.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows 63 percent of the country believes marijuana use should be “made legal in the United States.” That is similar to several polls that show national support above 60 percent. A January 2018 Quinnipiac poll showed 58 percent support for legalization.

It is also clear is that legal medical use of marijuana is now a consensus position with 93 percent of the public favoring it. Also, the public does not support enforcing federal laws against marijuana in states that have already legalized it.

• Medical marijuana legal – 93%
• Don’t enforce federal laws against marijuana in legal states – 70%

National momentum for legalization will be one of the topics at the May 15 American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver panel will consider.

Public Opinion and Legalization of Marijuana

May 15, 5:00 pm, Reception Follows

Sheraton Denver Downtown

AAPOR and the Crossley Center sponsor a panel on Marijuana, Public Opinion and Legalization.

Panelists:
Doug Schwartz – Quinnipiac University Poll, director, moderator
David Metz – President of FM3 pollsters in California
Rick Ridder – Campaign manager, pollster (international), Colorado
Skyler McKinley – Former Deputy Director of Colorado Office of Marijuana Coordination, Colorado government affairs AAA
Floyd Ciruli – Director of Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research, Korbel School, DU, pollster

Denver Press Club Hosts Panel – 1968: A Year of Turmoil and Transition

People say that 2018 is a year of such extraordinary political chaos and disruption that it must be unique in American history. But, 1968 saw even more violence, turmoil and disruption.

Pollster Floyd Ciruli and the Denver Press Club host a panel on 1968 and how it compares to 2018.

Panelists;
Wellington Webb – Former mayor of Denver, civil rights activist
Polly Baca – Democratic and civil rights activist, in LA and Chicago in 1968
Dick Wadhams – Republican campaign consultant and activist
Floyd Ciruli – Pollster, professor and in LA in 1968

Nineteen sixty-eight was the year the Baby Boomers came of age. Most were in high school or a few years out dealing with war on TV, assassinations, the credibility gap, the drugs, feminism, race and the attitude about authority. All issues important today.

Join the panel and relate how you experienced or remembered 1968’s key events in the context of today’s unbelievable year.

1968: A Year of Turmoil and Transition
Denver Press Club
1330 Glenarm Place
Tuesday, May 8
Social Hour – 5:30 pm
Panel and presentation – 6:30 pm (no charge)

Denver Post’s Amazing Shout Out

Much of the nation’s media have written about and praised the Denver Post’s editorial page effort to shout out to Colorado readers that they are losing their only statewide newspaper by steady and accelerating economic attrition. But even after the effort and some suggested remedies, there remains a sense of inevitability about it – the hidden hand of market, technology and out-of-town investors, which can’t really be stopped.

Most of us recognize the quality of political life in the Denver metro region, which represents 55 percent of the state’s population, and much of its economy, sports and cultural infrastructure was diminished by the loss of the Rocky Mountain News. Today, decline of the Denver Post’s finances and reporting reach and depth, often highlighted by the thinness of the Monday edition, are a common topic of the quarter of the population that actively engage in daily local news consumption.

A sketchy version of public policy aspects of good journalism, including accountability in government, coverage of political competition for office and policy differences, and providing the forums for discussion, is moving to digital platforms. Possibly, an Amazon Prime of politics and public policy will replace the print edition. But, we will still miss the connectivity of a well-written and edited newspaper and the public service of investigative journalism that requires exceptional levels of resources and talent.

The transition to digital is leaving gaps in coverage and in our public life that newspapers best filled, but are rapidly diminishing.

Read The New Republic: Finance is killing the news

Foreign Policy Opinions: Public Likes Meetings and Tough Sanctions

President Trump is on sound ground when he advocates meetings with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un. A majority of Americans (52%) believe Trump should invite Putin to the White House to improve relations. Slightly more (56%) support Trump meeting with Kim Jong Un to try to get North Korea to give up nuclear weapons. They are highly skeptical it will happen (two-thirds not likely to happen), but favor the summit.

Although the public sees Russia and North Korea as threats, they support meetings, diplomacy and sanctions before conflict. For example, the public supports tougher sanctions on Russia. Sixty-eight percent advise “tougher sanctions” against Russia, including Republican (68%). A CNN poll on North Korea asked if people believed the “situation involving North Korea can be successfully resolved using only economic and diplomatic efforts.” Sixty-three percent believed it could.

See Washington Post/ABC News poll findings here