Governor John Hickenlooper has been shifting his political attention to Washington D.C. since 2016 when he competed to become Hillary Clinton’s vice president. As he closes out the last six months of his 13-year Colorado political career, the 2020 presidential election is his focus. Can he find some support among current and former fellow governors, the D.C. and New York media establishment, some of the belt way PACs and money handlers? The Democratic Party may have a need for an outlier with a strong economic track record, but is there any room in the candidate and issue space that appears dominated by the left-leaning resistance?
In a Denver Post column, I review his political strengths and weaknesses as he pursues his national ambition.
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Tuesday, August 7, 2018
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
“Diplotainment” in Helsinki – A Chorus of Boos
President Trump believes Helsinki was a great show: vintage Trump, celebrity actors, a world stage and nuclear holocaust at stake. But by the time he got Airforce One off the ground, the reviews came in and they weren’t good. They said he looked weak, he blamed his own country first, and he repeatedly praised the autocrat and sided with him against his own team.
Trump was surprised at the sweeping, speedy chorus of boos. “Diplotainment” had worked so well in Singapore. The script was to approach the event in a nonchalant fashion, hype the significance, then stage the handshake, the secret meeting, the press conference and rush to the airport to bask in the reviews. Unfortunately, after a few weeks, it became clear nothing significant will happen, without much arduous negotiation in a multitude of meetings, the end point and result undetermined.
In Singapore, Kim Jong-un got his recognition as a world actor, he appeared reasonable, he gave up nothing discernable (the weak joint statement seemed to codify that), he improved his position with China and Russia, and he weakened the urgency of the sanctions regime.
The next Russian summit, which was just wisely cancelled, was launched in the same pattern – no preparation and no coordination within the U.S. government. The difference between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin is that Putin, wily tactician, is working every day to weaken and divide the democratic West. What the West needs is a negotiator who is worried less about reviews and more about the results.
Read The Buzz: “Diplotainment” crashes in Korea
Trump was surprised at the sweeping, speedy chorus of boos. “Diplotainment” had worked so well in Singapore. The script was to approach the event in a nonchalant fashion, hype the significance, then stage the handshake, the secret meeting, the press conference and rush to the airport to bask in the reviews. Unfortunately, after a few weeks, it became clear nothing significant will happen, without much arduous negotiation in a multitude of meetings, the end point and result undetermined.
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| President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un at summit in Singapore, June 12, 2018 | Evan Vucci/AP |
The next Russian summit, which was just wisely cancelled, was launched in the same pattern – no preparation and no coordination within the U.S. government. The difference between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin is that Putin, wily tactician, is working every day to weaken and divide the democratic West. What the West needs is a negotiator who is worried less about reviews and more about the results.
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| President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold press conference after their one-on-one meeting in Helsinki, Finland, July 16, 2018 | Photo RanttMedia |
Read The Buzz: “Diplotainment” crashes in Korea
Trump Loses a Fifth of Republicans in Handling Helsinki
The latest CBS national poll shows only 32 percent of Americans approved of President Trump’s handling of the Helsinki summit. That is an exceptionally poor rating for a major foreign policy performance (Washington Post poll – 33%). An even bigger problem for Trump is that only 68 percent of Republicans approved his performance (66% in Washington Post poll). The history of Trump’s controversies suggests his approval rating won’t be affected, but the worldwide media coverage was significant and the broad judgement that his performance was weak may produce a longer-term effect.
Trump’s overall approval depends on about 85 percent of Republicans (87% in Washington Post poll), so Helsinki’s 68 percent is a loss of about 20 points of support, or about a fifth of self-identified Republican partisans. This drop-off highlights two facts. First, there are Republicans who can be persuaded to withdrawal approval of Trump’s behavior. Second, the Republican label is held by a variety of partisan groupings, including evangelicals, Tea Party, old-line establishment, forever Trump and never Trump to just name a few. For some, affection for Trump is primarily a policy preference (tax cuts, Supreme Court appointments) and an aversion to the alternative (Hillary Clinton most recently).
As the Helsinki approval table below (from Washington Post data) shows, Republicans only represent about a quarter of the electorate and Trump can ill-afford to lose any.
Other polls that show lower percentages of independents and more Republicans still require super majorities of Republicans approving Trump to maintain his anemic approval rating of 42 to 45 percent.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll graphically shows the Republicans’ vulnerability to Trump’s periodic missteps. Out of the 82 percent Republican support, they record 50 percent “strong” approval, but 32 percent “somewhat” approve (note: another 3% “lean toward” approval). Nearly two-fifths of the party is weakly attached to Trump. Those are the voters who could stay home or walk away from the party.
Trump’s overall approval depends on about 85 percent of Republicans (87% in Washington Post poll), so Helsinki’s 68 percent is a loss of about 20 points of support, or about a fifth of self-identified Republican partisans. This drop-off highlights two facts. First, there are Republicans who can be persuaded to withdrawal approval of Trump’s behavior. Second, the Republican label is held by a variety of partisan groupings, including evangelicals, Tea Party, old-line establishment, forever Trump and never Trump to just name a few. For some, affection for Trump is primarily a policy preference (tax cuts, Supreme Court appointments) and an aversion to the alternative (Hillary Clinton most recently).
As the Helsinki approval table below (from Washington Post data) shows, Republicans only represent about a quarter of the electorate and Trump can ill-afford to lose any.
Other polls that show lower percentages of independents and more Republicans still require super majorities of Republicans approving Trump to maintain his anemic approval rating of 42 to 45 percent.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll graphically shows the Republicans’ vulnerability to Trump’s periodic missteps. Out of the 82 percent Republican support, they record 50 percent “strong” approval, but 32 percent “somewhat” approve (note: another 3% “lean toward” approval). Nearly two-fifths of the party is weakly attached to Trump. Those are the voters who could stay home or walk away from the party.
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