Some of the West’s top pollsters
gathered in San Francisco to participate in a panel discussion organized by
Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at
the University of Denver. The discussion, titled the “Year of the Outsider,” was
part of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion
Research (PAPOR) annual conference, which brings together public opinion
professionals in the West.
The group presented data from California,
Washington State, Colorado, and nationally on the political outsider phenomena
that is having so much impact on the 2016 presidential race.
Washington State’s best-known
pollster, Stuart Elway, was joined by Mark Baldassare, who directs California’s
leading polling research center, the Public Policy Institute of California. Jon
Cohen, vice president of research for Palo Alto based SurveyMonkey, which is
rapidly becoming a leading election research firm, presented the latest
national data on the Republican presidential field. SurveyMonkey has most
recently partnered with NBC News to provide post-debate polls on who won.
Co-presenting with Jon was recent Crossley Center graduate, Kevin Stay, a new
research associate at SurveyMonkey.
Colorado has a long history of
liking candidates with outsider credentials. Ciruli spoke about that history
and placed the phenomena in historical and public opinion context.
Panel – 2016: The Year of the
Outsider
Chair: Floyd Ciruli, Crossley
Center for Public Opinion Research
- The History of Outsider
Preference, Floyd Ciruli
- The Summer of Our Discontent,
Stuart Elway, Elway Research
- Californians’ Opinion of
Political Outsiders, Mark Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California
- Trump’s Beguiling Ascent: What
50-State Polling Says About the Surprise GOP Frontrunner, Jon Cohen and Kevin
Stay, SurveyMonkey
