Pollsters Present “Year of the Outsider”

Some of the West’s top pollsters gathered in San Francisco to participate in a panel discussion organized by Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver. The discussion, titled the “Year of the Outsider,” was part of the Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) annual conference, which brings together public opinion professionals in the West.

The group presented data from California, Washington State, Colorado, and nationally on the political outsider phenomena that is having so much impact on the 2016 presidential race.

Washington State’s best-known pollster, Stuart Elway, was joined by Mark Baldassare, who directs California’s leading polling research center, the Public Policy Institute of California. Jon Cohen, vice president of research for Palo Alto based SurveyMonkey, which is rapidly becoming a leading election research firm, presented the latest national data on the Republican presidential field. SurveyMonkey has most recently partnered with NBC News to provide post-debate polls on who won. Co-presenting with Jon was recent Crossley Center graduate, Kevin Stay, a new research associate at SurveyMonkey.

Colorado has a long history of liking candidates with outsider credentials. Ciruli spoke about that history and placed the phenomena in historical and public opinion context.

Panel – 2016: The Year of the Outsider

Chair: Floyd Ciruli, Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research

- The History of Outsider Preference, Floyd Ciruli

- The Summer of Our Discontent, Stuart Elway, Elway Research

- Californians’ Opinion of Political Outsiders, Mark Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California

- Trump’s Beguiling Ascent: What 50-State Polling Says About the Surprise GOP Frontrunner, Jon Cohen and Kevin Stay, SurveyMonkey