Polis Begins Campaign in Strong Position

Jared Polis | Photo: AP

Although as Julie Turkewitz reported in the New York Times shortly before the primary, the question is “just how far left this frontier state wants to go,” Jared Polis, the perceived “far left” Democratic nominee, begins his campaign in a good position. He is running in a state that has moved left the last decade, in a year Democratic enthusiasm is high and against a Republican nominee burdened with an unpopular president.

Polis’ campaign proposals are expensive and his 10 years in Congress will provide a wealth of
information for opposition research. So, a tough, in the trenches campaign can be expected, but as reported in this blogsite, The Buzz, the voter registration, party enthusiasm and presidential approval favor the Democrats.

• Republicans have lost a 160,000-voter registration advantage in 2000 and are now behind Democrats by 19,000.
• FOX News reports nationally Democrats’ enthusiasm to vote in November is 9 points higher than Republicans (51% to 42%). The generic ballot is 8 points in the Democrats’ favor.
• President Trump has a net 13 points negative approval (42% to 55%) in Colorado, a 17-point drop since January 2017. Voting for and against Trump is a major factor in midterm election voting.
• The most recent primary election had Democrats turning out 54,000 more voters and receiving 65,000 more unaffiliated voter participants (total 119,000 more Democratic voters).
• Finally, a Democratic Party sponsored poll by PPP (reputable robo polling firm) reported Polis with a 7-point lead over Walker Stapleton (47% to 40%). Too early to define the race, but another data point is the Democrats’ starting advantage. 

Polis has never had a competitive general election where his reputation, political record and platform are truly tested. In spite of the Democrats’ 2018 advantage, Colorado remains a state with persuadable voters. Can the Republicans mount a campaign that makes the governor’s race competitive?