Friday, January 17, 2020

Does Census Help Republicans or Democrats in 2020?

Lou Jacobson, one of the country’s premier political analysts, described the impact of the 2020 U.S. Census on the states, which could win seats (8) and those that could lose seats. As expected, the impact will depend on circumstances in 2020 because many of the seats that could shift are in battleground states, such as Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Jacobson has been a senior write for Roll Call, the National Journal, Governing and the Almanac of American Politics. He’s now featured in three of the most influential political reports in the country – Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and US News & World Report.

In Colorado, which will gain a seat, he wrote that an independent commission will decide the new district’s boundaries.

“The new seat will likely be centered in the Denver metro area but could affect the lines in far-flung areas of the state, says Floyd Ciruli, an independent pollster in the state.

My prediction was the split will end up Democrats 5 seats and Republicans had their three non-metro Denver seats.

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