Austrian Election Highlights Nationalism Driving European Politics

Like the U.S. presidential election, European politics is being driven by a strong trend of national sovereignty and anti-immigrant sentiment. The May Austrian presidential election made clear the weakness of the center parties noticeable throughout Europe and the rise of anti-immigrant, anti-EU/Brussels political parties. The Austrian left, with a Green presidential candidate, beat the far-right candidate by less than one percent of the vote.

The election was characterized by many of the elements of the U.S. presidential election:

• The tone was less civil
• Many comments and positions would have been highly incorrect just a few years ago

A quick scan of the 2016-2017 election cycle in Europe makes clear momentum, if not majorities, is running with the right. The EU and open borders are on the defensive.

• In France, President Hollande has barely 30 percent approval and the National Front appears competitive in the 2017 national elections. 
• Germany’s Chancellor Merkel still holds her right, and the left parties, as of yet, do not appear to have a strategy to win a national election – but she and her party are clearly on the defensive. Merkel’s future is in question.
• Nationalistic forces in a host of countries (Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden and Great Britain) are threatening center- right and left governments. In Poland and Hungary, they now control the government. 

Will Britain Leave the EU?

On June 23, British voters will decide to leave or stay in the EU. Polling forecasts have the stay forces slightly ahead, but it is expected to be close and final campaigning is intense.

Prime Minister David Cameron had to schedule a referendum as his parliamentary majority is narrow and his own party is strongly divided by the issue. If Britain votes to separate from the EU, not only will the decision begin a costly and undefined process, but the implications are significant well beyond the immediate effect.

• The vote will confirm and reinforce the nationalist and nativist trends sweeping the developed world today from Poland to France, Great Britain and the U.S. 
• If the UK votes to leave the EU, Scotland, which prefers the continental relationship, may schedule another vote to leave the UK. Scottish nationalists now control the region’s politics and governance and many are simply waiting for an excuse for another vote of separation. 
• The 70-year European and U.S. strategy of alliance will be weakened and NATO further endangered. It is already suffering from the neglect and forces supporting disunion. 

Summer Seminars of OLLI

Professor Floyd Ciruli will present “The Outsiders: The Year Voter Anger Upended the Establishment” at DU’s OLLI Summer Seminar series on June 2.

The presentation will handicap the U.S. presidential nomination and its effect on American foreign policy. It will discuss voter anger in America, citizen dissatisfaction with the global economy, and how politics in Europe and America have numerous similarities and, of course, some differences.

Summer Seminar for University of Denver OLLI

Professor Floyd Ciruli will offer the lead-off summer seminar for the University of Denver’s OLLI program. The seminar is titled “The Outsiders: The Year Voter Anger Upended the Establishment.”

The OLLI summer seminar flyer states:

Floyd Ciruli will handicap the U.S. presidential nomination and its effect on American foreign policy. He will discuss voter anger in America, citizen dissatisfaction with the global economy, and how politics in Europe affect the U.S. Ciruli believes the 2016 election will bring significant change to America and its foreign policy. 

Presenter: Floyd Ciruli, Colorado’s leading pollster and director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver. Floyd is a well-known political commentator, lecturer and blogger. 

The Ciruli seminar is one of eight that take on interesting and current topics from DU and other local experts. See flyer here.

Josef Korbel School Receives $1M Gift for New Public Opinion Research Center

By Joanne Napper

A new survey research center has been created at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies with a $1 million gift from public opinion research pioneer and DU alumna Helen Crossley. The Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research will be Colorado’s leading academic center for survey research. It will train students in American public opinion as well as international public opinion related to international policy issues.

Helen Crossley earned a master’s degree from DU in 1947 with an emphasis in survey research, and enjoyed a long career in public opinion research, mostly in the area of international affairs. The new center is dedicated to her and her father, Archibald Crossley, one of the founders of survey research.

The Crossley Center will be led by Floyd Ciruli, a well-known Colorado public opinion pollster. Ciruli is the center’s director and an adjunct professor of public opinion and international policy. Ciruli noted that the new center is part of the Josef Korbel School’s public policy initiatives that prepare students for management and leadership roles in international affairs professions.

“We are gratified with Helen Crossley’s generous gift and excited to launch the Crossley Center,” said Ambassador Christopher R. Hill, dean of the Josef Korbel School. “As the center grows, it will become instrumental in helping students and the greater community understand American public opinion related to international affairs, as well as international public opinion. Both are key in developing international policy and working effectively with individuals in other countries.”

DU Chancellor Rebecca Chopp says the Crossley Center and the gift from Helen come at the perfect time in DU’s history, as it unfolds its strategic plan: DU Impact 2025. “The University is continuously amazed at the generosity of its alumni,” Chopp said. “The Crossley Center will be able to apply this donation towards the incredibly important research needed for aiding in policy development and enhancing the student learning experience.”

Both Archibald Crossley and Helen Crossley were instrumental in establishing the field’s professional organizations and its ethical and scientific standards. They were founding members of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) and the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP).

Immigration in the 2016 Election

Austin Klemmer, a graduate student at the Korbel School, wrote the following blog on immigration in the 2016 election for his American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy winter class taught by Professor Floyd Ciruli.

Trump Continues to Set the Tone for Immigration in the GOP Race

A day out from the New Hampshire primary, and frontrunner Donald Trump is still surging in the polls.  Real Clear Politics puts Trump 17 points ahead in New Hampshire, which likely has to do with his tough stance on illegal immigration. Republicans in the state take a hard line on illegal immigrants: according to a CBS poll from November, 86% of New Hampshire’s likely GOP primary voters feel illegal immigrants should be penalized or deported.

But New Hampshire is one state, and Donald Trump’s boldness could come back to haunt him. Nationally, few agree with Trump’s strict stance on deporting the 11 million immigrants currently in the country. On the contrary, a CBS and NY Times news poll found that 58% of Americans support a path to citizenship for those immigrants.

Regardless, others in the field have had to walk a fine line, trying to win over support from Trump’s right-wing base without undermining their appeal in the general election. In Saturday’s debate, for instance, Marco Rubio scaled back his support for the path to citizenship, focusing instead on the need to secure the border. Trump’s shifting of the narrative towards extreme platforms, especially on immigration, could jeopardize the Republicans come November.

But immigration for Syrian refugees is an altogether different story, and polls suggest that Republicans will have the edge on this in the general election. A recent Quinnipiac poll found that 51% of independent voters oppose providing asylum to Syrian refugees—support for Trump’s proposal to bar all Muslims, though, was far less favorable. If, over the coming months, the world sees more events like New Year’s in Cologne or the attack in San Bernardino, Republicans across the board can count on continued support for their closed-door policies.

For the current contenders to win the nomination while preserving their chances in the general, they should continue to measure Trump’s boldness with moderate stances on illegal immigrants and strong but level-headed opposition to asylum for Syrians in the U.S.

WorldDenver Event

Monday, February 22nd, WorldDenver is honored to host 7 European visitors at the conclusion of the Denver segment of their U.S. State Department International Visitors Leadership Program (IVLP) titled “U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges.”

Mr. Floyd Ciruli, from Ciruli Associates, a polling and consulting firm that specializes in public policy, will provide a brief introduction and frame current events before the start of the informal discussion. The conversation could include international topics such as the U.S.’s role economically and militarily overseas, as well as domestic issues such as the 2016 presidential campaign, gun control, gay rights, the role of women in the economy, and the recent legalization of marijuana use in the state and other issues.

International guests include:

• (Austria) Mr. Mehdi HAMIDI FAAL - Foreign Affairs Writer/Reporter, Austrian Press Agency and Wiener Zeitung (daily) 
• (Bulgaria) Ms. Miroslava GATEVA - Chief Foreign Policy and International Affairs Expert, National Council, Bulgarian Socialist Party 
• (Estonia) Ms. Aari LEMMIK - Director, International Cooperation Department, Ministry of Defense 
• (Germany) Ms. Viktoria DUEMER - Foreign Policy Editor, Bild (daily) 
• (Latvia) Mr. Andrejs ELKSNINS - Member of Parliament (Harmony Party) 
• (Netherlands) Mr. Marno DE BOER - Political/Defense Editor, Trouw (daily) 
• (Romania) Ms. Veronica ANGHEL - Foreign Affairs Advisor, Department of Foreign Affairs 

When: Monday, February 22nd 2016
Time: 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm
Location: Rocky Mountain PBS Building, Teleconference Room, 1089 Bannock Street Denver, CO 80204