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| Photo: Inquisitr.com |
Politico: Trump tests post-Mueller vengeance campaign
The Buzz: Trump starts 2020 campaign
A forum for students and faculty to post perspectives on key domestic and foreign policy issues.
Friday, May 10, 2019
Trump Starts 2020 Campaign – Again
Numerous commentators have said President Trump started the 2020 campaign with his recent rally in Michigan. A vengeance reboot post the Mueller report completion. No doubt, the main themes of the campaign were expressed in the rally. But, in fact, his campaign began in February 2017 four weeks after his inauguration in Melbourne, Florida, before a similar 9,000 fans with Air Force One as a backdrop. He has been campaigning non-stop for all two years in office.
Read:
Politico: Trump tests post-Mueller vengeance campaign
The Buzz: Trump starts 2020 campaign
Politico: Trump tests post-Mueller vengeance campaign
The Buzz: Trump starts 2020 campaign
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
Economist – Polis, a Libertarian Democrat?
In an interview in the latest Economist, Governor Jared Polis is profiled as a Libertarian Democrat whose success will depend on striking a balance between a progressive legislature and campaign agenda versus a state with a moderate and conservative fiscal disposition.
My citations were:
Last autumn’s election was the most significant for Colorado’s political realignment in more than 40 years, says Floyd Ciruli of Ciruli Associates, a political consulting firm.
The legislature, which is now in full session, will not share the sense of moderation and is likely to pull Mr. Polis further left than he wants, according to Mr. Ciruli.
The author, Alexandra Suich Bass, ends with placing the political burden on Polis
The state’s political transformation is still relatively new. Whether it lasts will depend in part on the success of Mr. Polis’s reign.
My citations were:
Last autumn’s election was the most significant for Colorado’s political realignment in more than 40 years, says Floyd Ciruli of Ciruli Associates, a political consulting firm.
The legislature, which is now in full session, will not share the sense of moderation and is likely to pull Mr. Polis further left than he wants, according to Mr. Ciruli.
The author, Alexandra Suich Bass, ends with placing the political burden on Polis
The state’s political transformation is still relatively new. Whether it lasts will depend in part on the success of Mr. Polis’s reign.
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| Jared Polis | Photo: Getty Images |
California’s Growth Stalls While Florida and Texas Boom
After decades of steady and often spectacular growth, mostly from migration from other states (augmented by other countries), California’s growth has been cut in half the last eight years from its recent trend. Out migration now exceeds new arrivals. Florida and Texas continue on their recovery from the Great Recession starting in 2008. Both are drawing many U.S. residents to their economies and lifestyles.
California’s attitude, especially in its high-lifestyle coastal region, is anti-growth, characterized by municipal and county restrictions on businesses and new housing. The cost of available housing has skyrocketed, pushing many Millennials to look for more affordable regions, mostly out-of-state. The Democratic single-party state government is also highly burdensome for new businesses and new housing development. Taxes are high and homelessness is now the top complaint in most communities.
The California dream has collapsed for many and other choices are being made.
California’s attitude, especially in its high-lifestyle coastal region, is anti-growth, characterized by municipal and county restrictions on businesses and new housing. The cost of available housing has skyrocketed, pushing many Millennials to look for more affordable regions, mostly out-of-state. The Democratic single-party state government is also highly burdensome for new businesses and new housing development. Taxes are high and homelessness is now the top complaint in most communities.
The California dream has collapsed for many and other choices are being made.
No Collusion, No Impeachment – KOA and 9KUSA
The Mueller report finding of no collusion is very good news for the President. Trump’s mantra of no collusion is validated. In 9KUSA and KOA interviews, the politics of the Mueller report was dissected. The finding of no collusion means no impeachment. Speaker Nancy Pelosi already understood the politics and stated that for impeachment to be credible and not work to the Democrats’ detriment, it had to have the Mueller report outlining “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
The Special Counsel's investigation did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with Russia in its efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election. As the report states: “[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
But, the Russians did interfere with the election by social media efforts to divide the U.S. electorate and help Trump and by hacking Democratic emails for distribution to damage Hillary Clinton and help Donald Trump. Did it make a difference? Not determinable, but the 77,000 three-state victory of Trump will forever be less legitimate. And, there is a host of contacts between his campaign associates and principals and the Russians to forever raise doubt that there was an, at least, unethical intent and action.
But, Mueller was less definite on obstruction of justice. Attorney General Barr’s letter states:
Instead, for each of the relevant actions investigated, the report sets out evidence on both sides of the question and leaves unresolved what the Special Counsel views as “difficult issues” of law and fact concerning whether the President's actions and intent could be viewed as obstruction. The Special Counsel states that “while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.”
Hence, there will be a demand for the evidence “on both sides of the question” and for Congress and the public to make their own judgement. According to Barr, the lack of finding collusion was fatal to the charge of obstruction as it undermined the “evil intent” requirement.
Trump will, of course, argue he’s exonerated and any further inquiries are partisan harassment. Democrats will demand the evidence and continue at least some investigations. And, of course, the President’s re-election effort is benefited by the lifting of the cloud and endless stories of subpoenas, raids, testimonies and pleas. Although Trump was harmed by the investigation, and would have been possibly fatally damaged by a finding of collusion or obstruction, the success of his re-election is based on other political factors.
The midterm result and recent polls, including from his preferred FOX News, show that he starts from behind in voter approval and head-to-head face-offs because of his unpresidential demeanor and many unpopular policies on health care, immigration and taxes. Historically, incumbent presidents get re-elected. Both Trump and the Democrats are now back to the real task of convincing voters they should lead the country after 2020.
The Special Counsel's investigation did not find that the Trump campaign or anyone associated with it conspired or coordinated with Russia in its efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election. As the report states: “[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
But, the Russians did interfere with the election by social media efforts to divide the U.S. electorate and help Trump and by hacking Democratic emails for distribution to damage Hillary Clinton and help Donald Trump. Did it make a difference? Not determinable, but the 77,000 three-state victory of Trump will forever be less legitimate. And, there is a host of contacts between his campaign associates and principals and the Russians to forever raise doubt that there was an, at least, unethical intent and action.
But, Mueller was less definite on obstruction of justice. Attorney General Barr’s letter states:
Instead, for each of the relevant actions investigated, the report sets out evidence on both sides of the question and leaves unresolved what the Special Counsel views as “difficult issues” of law and fact concerning whether the President's actions and intent could be viewed as obstruction. The Special Counsel states that “while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.”
Hence, there will be a demand for the evidence “on both sides of the question” and for Congress and the public to make their own judgement. According to Barr, the lack of finding collusion was fatal to the charge of obstruction as it undermined the “evil intent” requirement.
Trump will, of course, argue he’s exonerated and any further inquiries are partisan harassment. Democrats will demand the evidence and continue at least some investigations. And, of course, the President’s re-election effort is benefited by the lifting of the cloud and endless stories of subpoenas, raids, testimonies and pleas. Although Trump was harmed by the investigation, and would have been possibly fatally damaged by a finding of collusion or obstruction, the success of his re-election is based on other political factors.
The midterm result and recent polls, including from his preferred FOX News, show that he starts from behind in voter approval and head-to-head face-offs because of his unpresidential demeanor and many unpopular policies on health care, immigration and taxes. Historically, incumbent presidents get re-elected. Both Trump and the Democrats are now back to the real task of convincing voters they should lead the country after 2020.
Are Democrats Overreaching? Will There be a Backlash?
The commentary is rising, especially outside the Boulder, Denver confines that the Democratic legislature is rushing its full agenda through in breakneck speed – snow cyclones be damned. Does their behavior constitutes overreach and will it lead to a backlash similar to 2013, the last time Democrats were in command?
Democrats argue that the liberal agenda they’re passing were issues they were elected on. They are reassured by their political strategist that, as opposed to 2013 when Democratic control and legislature behavior was judged as overreach and political punishment followed with recalls, subsequent loss of the State Senate and a more difficult re-election for then Governor John Hickenlooper, 2020 will be another Trump blowout in Colorado, leaving the Democrats intact, if not enhanced, regardless of their rushed agenda in 2019.
But, opponents are not sitting it out. A ballot initiative challenge has been mounted to the Democrats’ National Popular Vote law, which opponents claim will diminish Colorado’s clout in presidential elections and make it a subsidiary of California and New York voters. If it gets to the ballot, the Democrats and especially Governor Polis will have a busy time defending it since almost no time was spent explaining it and it appears blatantly partisan.
Also, a couple of political committees have been formed specifically targeting Polis, advocating a recall (highly unlikely) and simply opposing his re-election. But, clearly the honeymoon is over and Polis and fellow Democrats will be dealing with an increasingly hostile environment.
Opponents argue that the 2018 election was mostly about sending Donald Trump a message and not the far left agendas of the legislature and Polis. In fact, they point out that when voters actually dealt with state ballot issues, they said no to new oil and gas regulations and no to more taxes for schools and roads. They also believe that, beyond overreaching on policy, Democratic leadership is avoiding transparency and accountability; i.e., rushing bills to avoid study or reading them and calling meetings to avoid opponents’ participation.
The Democratic agenda is wide and deep. Along with a major overhaul of oil and gas regulations, including making clear that Colorado doesn’t promote but just regulates the industry, it includes spending state and business revenue in prodigious amounts. Full-day kindergarten is a more than $200 million annual price tag, a new annual commitment that gives pause to fiscally-conscious Democrats on the Joint Budget Committee. There is also a paid leave requirement being pressed on businesses, which is cited by the state’s chambers of commerce to add $1 billion in costs. Democrats are also taking on guns, the death penalty, TABOR limits, sex education and a host of other divisive topics that they have been waiting to pass for years.
The oil and gas regulations could provide the most potent political fight if the industry can identify and unite on an effective strategy. Although some New England states have banned fracking, no state with an industry as large and well-developed as Colorado has passed legislation that would allow specific bans and regulations against the industry. In an article in the Washington Times Valerie Richardson reported:
Colorado “is going to do something that hasn’t been done, and that is: a state with a very significant pool of gas and oil is going to make it a lot more difficult to mine it,” said Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli.
“There is really now ample warning that the way this legislation is drafted, it’s essentially going to allow some level of a ban,” he said. “The public is clearly divided on this.”
Climate change has been the top issue for many Democrats, especially from Boulder, which includes Governor Polis and House and Senate leadership (House Speaker and Senate Majority Leader).
“When you look at the demographic changes in the state and the fact that climate change has now become a civic religion with a significant number of people, it’s hard for gas and oil to compete in that environment no matter how good their PR is,” Mr. Ciruli said.
If the economy should deteriorate as expected next year, Democrats could be held liable for both busting the state budget and driving one of Colorado most important industries to reducing activity and hence, employment and tax payments.
“If this turns out to be as economically devastating as talked about, mainly because it allows for actual banning, or incredibly draconian regulations, the oil and gas industry has choices. We’re not the only place they can drill, although we’re a good one,” Mr. Ciruli said. “And I think the Democrats will be vulnerable if that turns out to be true.”
Democrats need to be especially concerned if a cutback in Colorado’s oil and gas industry coincides with a recession next year. Someone will get blamed.
See the Washington Times: With Hickenlooper out, Colorado’s empowered environmentalists target oil and gas industry
Democrats argue that the liberal agenda they’re passing were issues they were elected on. They are reassured by their political strategist that, as opposed to 2013 when Democratic control and legislature behavior was judged as overreach and political punishment followed with recalls, subsequent loss of the State Senate and a more difficult re-election for then Governor John Hickenlooper, 2020 will be another Trump blowout in Colorado, leaving the Democrats intact, if not enhanced, regardless of their rushed agenda in 2019.
 |
| Gov. Jared Polis | Photo: Rick T. Wilking/Getty Images |
Also, a couple of political committees have been formed specifically targeting Polis, advocating a recall (highly unlikely) and simply opposing his re-election. But, clearly the honeymoon is over and Polis and fellow Democrats will be dealing with an increasingly hostile environment.
Opponents argue that the 2018 election was mostly about sending Donald Trump a message and not the far left agendas of the legislature and Polis. In fact, they point out that when voters actually dealt with state ballot issues, they said no to new oil and gas regulations and no to more taxes for schools and roads. They also believe that, beyond overreaching on policy, Democratic leadership is avoiding transparency and accountability; i.e., rushing bills to avoid study or reading them and calling meetings to avoid opponents’ participation.
The Democratic agenda is wide and deep. Along with a major overhaul of oil and gas regulations, including making clear that Colorado doesn’t promote but just regulates the industry, it includes spending state and business revenue in prodigious amounts. Full-day kindergarten is a more than $200 million annual price tag, a new annual commitment that gives pause to fiscally-conscious Democrats on the Joint Budget Committee. There is also a paid leave requirement being pressed on businesses, which is cited by the state’s chambers of commerce to add $1 billion in costs. Democrats are also taking on guns, the death penalty, TABOR limits, sex education and a host of other divisive topics that they have been waiting to pass for years.
The oil and gas regulations could provide the most potent political fight if the industry can identify and unite on an effective strategy. Although some New England states have banned fracking, no state with an industry as large and well-developed as Colorado has passed legislation that would allow specific bans and regulations against the industry. In an article in the Washington Times Valerie Richardson reported:
Colorado “is going to do something that hasn’t been done, and that is: a state with a very significant pool of gas and oil is going to make it a lot more difficult to mine it,” said Denver political analyst Floyd Ciruli.
“There is really now ample warning that the way this legislation is drafted, it’s essentially going to allow some level of a ban,” he said. “The public is clearly divided on this.”
Climate change has been the top issue for many Democrats, especially from Boulder, which includes Governor Polis and House and Senate leadership (House Speaker and Senate Majority Leader).“When you look at the demographic changes in the state and the fact that climate change has now become a civic religion with a significant number of people, it’s hard for gas and oil to compete in that environment no matter how good their PR is,” Mr. Ciruli said.
If the economy should deteriorate as expected next year, Democrats could be held liable for both busting the state budget and driving one of Colorado most important industries to reducing activity and hence, employment and tax payments.
“If this turns out to be as economically devastating as talked about, mainly because it allows for actual banning, or incredibly draconian regulations, the oil and gas industry has choices. We’re not the only place they can drill, although we’re a good one,” Mr. Ciruli said. “And I think the Democrats will be vulnerable if that turns out to be true.”
Democrats need to be especially concerned if a cutback in Colorado’s oil and gas industry coincides with a recession next year. Someone will get blamed.
See the Washington Times: With Hickenlooper out, Colorado’s empowered environmentalists target oil and gas industry
Can Hickenlooper Answer the Main Questions?
After months of testing the water, John Hickenlooper gets a debut on CNN’s town hall. But, he faces formidable challenges to achieve a sustainable campaign. A myriad of new competitors are entering the race – Beto O’Rourke and Joe Biden – on a weekly basis. He still appears to lack a clear constituency or a stimulating message besides his quirky personality and desire to bring people together to do good things.
Hickenlooper polls below one percent, has no superior source of funds, such as the new online sources used effectively by Beto O’Rourke and Bernie Sanders, or big donor gifts that seated senators, especially from politically rich states like California and New York, have. Although he raised $1 million at his announcement, it’s not clear if he has a stream of donations beyond his initial introduction.
Hickenlooper is not the favorite of activists in any of the major Democratic primary constituencies. Liberal issue activists have Sanders and Elizabeth Warren; minorities have Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Julian Castro; Millennials have Beto O’Rourke; there is a surfeit of women; and establishment Democrats are likely to have Joe Biden. Hickenlooper is more of an independent than a Democrat, which in Colorado is a political asset, but not so much in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states.
His successful political career in Colorado has largely been accomplished as an independent businessman. His first and only contested election for Denver mayor was on a non-partisan ballot. A combination of an activist civic reputation, superior financing for Denver city races and creative advertising got him in the race. The endorsement of the businesses community and the conservative editorial page of the Rocky Mountain News gave him frontrunner position.
His ascension to the governorship was largely by appointment of the Democratic political establishment after the sudden retirement of Bill Ritter. Hickenlooper was the ranking Democrat from the largest political jurisdiction interested in the job. He had no primary. His two partisan elections for governor produced modest victories never more than 51 percent.
Although it’s not necessary to be a Democrat to win a Democratic Party presidential caucus or primary – witness Bernie Sanders – it helps to locate a constituency.
Nor has Hickenlooper identified any issue or bundle of issues that can excite primary voters, which appears especially important in 2020. He tends to be too balanced and reasonable to jump onto the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, or the host of economic and social populist positions, from attacking billionaires and banks, to reconfiguring ICE or supporting sanctuary cities. In many pictures from the primary states, Hickenlooper is shown drinking beer, relating his background as a brew pub entrepreneur presenting his folksy personality. But being pragmatic and hospitable may not be enough in 2020.
Will Hickenlooper start to answer the questions tonight? Who are his constituents? What’s his platform?
Hickenlooper polls below one percent, has no superior source of funds, such as the new online sources used effectively by Beto O’Rourke and Bernie Sanders, or big donor gifts that seated senators, especially from politically rich states like California and New York, have. Although he raised $1 million at his announcement, it’s not clear if he has a stream of donations beyond his initial introduction.
Hickenlooper is not the favorite of activists in any of the major Democratic primary constituencies. Liberal issue activists have Sanders and Elizabeth Warren; minorities have Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Julian Castro; Millennials have Beto O’Rourke; there is a surfeit of women; and establishment Democrats are likely to have Joe Biden. Hickenlooper is more of an independent than a Democrat, which in Colorado is a political asset, but not so much in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states.
His successful political career in Colorado has largely been accomplished as an independent businessman. His first and only contested election for Denver mayor was on a non-partisan ballot. A combination of an activist civic reputation, superior financing for Denver city races and creative advertising got him in the race. The endorsement of the businesses community and the conservative editorial page of the Rocky Mountain News gave him frontrunner position.
His ascension to the governorship was largely by appointment of the Democratic political establishment after the sudden retirement of Bill Ritter. Hickenlooper was the ranking Democrat from the largest political jurisdiction interested in the job. He had no primary. His two partisan elections for governor produced modest victories never more than 51 percent.
Although it’s not necessary to be a Democrat to win a Democratic Party presidential caucus or primary – witness Bernie Sanders – it helps to locate a constituency.
Nor has Hickenlooper identified any issue or bundle of issues that can excite primary voters, which appears especially important in 2020. He tends to be too balanced and reasonable to jump onto the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, or the host of economic and social populist positions, from attacking billionaires and banks, to reconfiguring ICE or supporting sanctuary cities. In many pictures from the primary states, Hickenlooper is shown drinking beer, relating his background as a brew pub entrepreneur presenting his folksy personality. But being pragmatic and hospitable may not be enough in 2020.
Will Hickenlooper start to answer the questions tonight? Who are his constituents? What’s his platform?
Hickenlooper Hits 1% in CNN Poll. Good News? KOA Interview
John Hickenlooper just moved from an asterisk to one percent in the latest CNN poll. Out of the ten declared candidates (or highly rumored) listed, Hickenlooper was tied with three others in the bottom 40 percent (Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Jay Inslee). But, Hickenlooper was finally registering a few mentions among the 436 Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents CNN interviewed. And, one percent is good news since it’s the threshold in three reputable national polls needed to gain entrance to the first debate.
As discussed on KOA this morning, Hickenlooper makes his CNN debut with an hour town hall tonight. Can he translate that appearance into 5 percent by June to make it into the top tier of candidates? (John Kerry, who got 4 percent, was not listed due to no evidence, yet he’s mounting a campaign.)
As discussed on KOA this morning, Hickenlooper makes his CNN debut with an hour town hall tonight. Can he translate that appearance into 5 percent by June to make it into the top tier of candidates? (John Kerry, who got 4 percent, was not listed due to no evidence, yet he’s mounting a campaign.)
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