In my class on American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy, students produced blogs on public policy topics. Communicating online is an essential skill for today’s public policy professions. Student Brittney Lewis submitted the following blog, titled “Gay Rights, Millennials and Changing Public Opinion,” which I believe is an excellent example of policy and opinion analysis.
Gay Rights, Millennials and Changing Public Opinion
By Brittney Lewis
Views on same-sex marriage have changed drastically over the last few years. In 2004, gay marriage was legal in only one state: Massachusetts. By 2015, marriage equality was the law of the land. Today, it has the support of over two-thirds of Americans, with 83 percent of Democrats, 71 percent of independents and 44 percent of Republicans supporting.1 Only eight years earlier, a majority opposed it 48 percent to 42 percent.
This vast increase in support is attributed to several key factors. The first explanation is a generational change. Polls show 74 percent of millennials back gay marriage, including 60 percent of Republican millennials. 2 Second, more individuals are identifying as LGBT accounting for 4.5 percent of the current population, up from 3.5 percent in 2012, meaning more Americans personally know someone who is LGBT. This socialization, in addition to exposure through media, Hollywood representation, and elite discussion has nudged the public toward greater support. 3 Education is another contributing factor to the growing acceptance of gay rights. When people are well educated, they tend to be more tolerant of different lifestyles. Here too, millennials are a driving force in the acceptance; they are the largest voting bloc, the most well educated, and they are changing public opinion. Finally, in 2012, Obama formally announced his support for gay marriage. Having a sitting president’s endorsement was, of course, a monumental event, and it cemented one of the nation’s major political party’s approval of gay rights.
Acceptance of the LGBT community manifested itself in the 2018 midterms, which many pundits called “a rainbow wave.” A record 399 LGBTQ candidates ran for office this year, and 164 candidates won, providing history-making government representation for the community.4 Colorado elected the nation’s first gay governor and Kansas elected Sharice Davids, the state’s first lesbian congresswoman. Equality is winning and Americans are proud of it.
1Gallup, Inc. "Two in Three Americans Support Same-Sex Marriage." Gallup.com. May 23, 2018. Accessed November 15, 2018. https://news.gallup.com/poll/234866/two-three-americans-support-sex-marriage.aspx.
2Fingerhut, Hannah. "Support for Same-Sex Marriage Grows, Even Among Groups That Had Been Skeptical." Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. September 24, 2018. Accessed November 15, 2018. http://www.people-press.org/2017/06/26/support-for-same-sex-marriage-grows-even-among-groups-that-had-been-skeptical/. ; Erikson, Robert S., and Kent L. Tedin. American Public Opinion. London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2016. p.106
3Ayoub, Phillip M. "How the Media Has Helped Change Public Views about Lesbian and Gay People." Scholars Strategy Network. Accessed November 16, 2018. https://scholars.org/brief/how-media-has-helped-change-public-views-about-lesbian-and-gay-people.
4McDermott, Matt. "There Was A Rainbow Wave In The Midterms, And It Will Change Our Politics." BuzzFeed News. November 15, 2018. Accessed November 16, 2018. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mattmcdermott1/the-rainbow-wave.
A forum for students and faculty to post perspectives on key domestic and foreign policy issues.
Friday, December 7, 2018
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
DU Hosts the Secretaries of State
Kerry and Albright Concerned About the State of Democracy, But Optimistic About Next Generation
The University of Denver hosted Secretaries of State Madeleine Albright and John Kerry at their annual Korbel School dinner on November 29.
In a conversation I moderated, Albright, who just published a book on the history of fascism (“Fascism: A Warning”), bemoaned the rise of authoritarian leaders in Eastern Europe and most recently in Brazil, at the very moment America was abandoning its historic leadership of democracy. Kerry said “Our democracy is troubled and that the norms and values that we as a people were raised with are being violated.” He offered three needed remedies for American democracy related to limiting money in politics, ending gerrymandering and securing voter access.
In the nearly hour-long discussion, they both emphasized the need for women and young people to participate in politics and policymaking. They were optimistic the recent midterm elections reflected a revival of the activism of previous youth movements for the environment and against the Vietnam War. I pointed out that the Colorado midterm elections saw a record level of turnout and participation by women and Millennial voters and a result that mirrored the 1974 Watergate election.
The dinner attracted 500 and included former Senators Gary Hart and Hank Brown. Senator Michael Bennet gave John Kerry the Korbel School’s International Bridge Builder Award.
Read:
Denver Post: John Kerry, Madeleine Albright slam Donald Trump’s foreign policy at Denver event
DU: John Kerry and Madeleine Albright share messages of optimism at 20th Korbel Dinner
The University of Denver hosted Secretaries of State Madeleine Albright and John Kerry at their annual Korbel School dinner on November 29.
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| (L to R) DU Chancellor Chopp, Floyd Ciruli, Madeleine Albright and John Kerry |
In the nearly hour-long discussion, they both emphasized the need for women and young people to participate in politics and policymaking. They were optimistic the recent midterm elections reflected a revival of the activism of previous youth movements for the environment and against the Vietnam War. I pointed out that the Colorado midterm elections saw a record level of turnout and participation by women and Millennial voters and a result that mirrored the 1974 Watergate election.
The dinner attracted 500 and included former Senators Gary Hart and Hank Brown. Senator Michael Bennet gave John Kerry the Korbel School’s International Bridge Builder Award.
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| (L to R) Floyd Ciruli, John Kerry and Madeleine Albright |
Read:
Denver Post: John Kerry, Madeleine Albright slam Donald Trump’s foreign policy at Denver event
DU: John Kerry and Madeleine Albright share messages of optimism at 20th Korbel Dinner
Friday, November 30, 2018
DU Post-Election Event Draws Crowd to Discussion of Midterm Election and What it Means
The Korbel School hosted a post-midterm presentation with Ambassador Christopher Hill and Professor Floyd Ciruli to update their analyses after the 2016 election. The presentation described the mixed national results, the end of one-party government in Washington and the extraordinary sweep of Colorado offices by the Democrats.
The event, which attracted 150 students, alumni and metro residents, was co-sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the Office of Global Engagement. The impact on the administration’s ability to conduct foreign policy due to a Democratic House of Representatives was a focus of discussion. Hill described the Congressional hearing process for a foreign services officer. I suggested that House Democrats now have a mandate to restrain the President and will have to implement it in a fashion that is seen as reasonable by the public.
With the conclusion of the midterms, we both expected the presidential election will now accelerate and controversies surrounding American foreign policy will be one of the issues candidates will have viewpoints on and electorates will expect to hear.
Read The Buzz: Korbel School Post-Election Event Attracts More than 250 Alumni, Professors and Students
The event, which attracted 150 students, alumni and metro residents, was co-sponsored by the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research and the Office of Global Engagement. The impact on the administration’s ability to conduct foreign policy due to a Democratic House of Representatives was a focus of discussion. Hill described the Congressional hearing process for a foreign services officer. I suggested that House Democrats now have a mandate to restrain the President and will have to implement it in a fashion that is seen as reasonable by the public.
With the conclusion of the midterms, we both expected the presidential election will now accelerate and controversies surrounding American foreign policy will be one of the issues candidates will have viewpoints on and electorates will expect to hear.
Read The Buzz: Korbel School Post-Election Event Attracts More than 250 Alumni, Professors and Students
NBC News: Colorado No Longer a Swing State – It’s Democratic
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| Chuck Todd } NBC News photo |
Colorado, on the other hand, gave Hillary Clinton a 5-point win in 2016, and this year, defeated a Republican incumbent congressperson by 11 points and elected a Democratic governor by 10 points.
NBC also pointed out that Colorado has a surfeit of metrics that suggest Democrats will be in power for at least as long as President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. For example, 39 percent of Coloradans have a four-year college degree, reflecting it being the second highest educated state in the country. College educated voters prefer Democrats by 20 percentage points.
Missing may be the most important factor in Colorado’s recent high turnout election – Millennials. Ballot returns reported they were 32 percent of the electorate and polls showed they voted for Democrats by 20 points (pre-election and national exit polls). Colorado also has a surfeit of independents. They were 34 percent of the electorate and polls showed they favored Democrats nationally be 12 points and in Colorado by more than 20 points.
Arizona appears now to be a swing state for the 2020 election. The point was one we’ve made in numerous articles and op eds that there wasn’t so much of a wave, but a realignment of our deep divisions.
DU and the Korbel School Host Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeleine Albright at Annual Dinner
Chancellor Rebeca Chopp announced the 20th annual Korbel Dinner will feature Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeleine Albright. The annual event is a fundraiser for the school’s graduate programs.
Secretary Kerry will receive the International Bridge Builder Award. I will moderate a discussion between Kerry and Secretary Albright of their unique perspectives and current international politics.
The Josef Korbel School of International Studies is one of the nation’s most respected schools of international relations and one of DU’s largest graduate and undergraduate programs.
The event will be a dinner and program on November 29, 2018 at the Denver Hyatt Regency. For more information, click here
Secretary Kerry will receive the International Bridge Builder Award. I will moderate a discussion between Kerry and Secretary Albright of their unique perspectives and current international politics.
The Josef Korbel School of International Studies is one of the nation’s most respected schools of international relations and one of DU’s largest graduate and undergraduate programs.
The event will be a dinner and program on November 29, 2018 at the Denver Hyatt Regency. For more information, click here
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| U.S. Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeleine Albright, Washington, D.C., Feb. 6, 2013 | State Department photo |
Record Turnout: Unaffiliated Voters Beat Partisans
I appreciate those occasions a prediction hits the mark. We projected record turnout of 2.5 million in an October 22 blog post, and the most recent count from the Secretary of State reports 2,581,426 midterm votes cast. Nationally, with 61.9 percent turnout compared to eligible voters, Colorado was the second highest state in voter turnout just behind Minnesota. That represents a 76 percent turnout of 3,379,992 active registered voters and 64 percent of total active and inactive registrations.
Historically, slightly more than 2 million voters turned out for the 2014 midterm election (71 percent), which had a U.S. Senate race accompanying the usual governor and state constitutional office races. It was a very successful year for Republicans. Republican Cory Gardner won the senate race against incumbent Democrat Mark Udall and Republicans won the three constitutional offices of Attorney General, Treasurer and Secretary of State. They also won one seat in the State Senate and gained control. They lost the governorship with the re-election of John Hickenlooper.
But in this year’s high turnout, Democrats dominated Republicans. Thirty-six thousand more Democrats voted than Republicans, but the surprise was the 878,360 unaffiliated voters, which exceeded Democrats by 29,000 voters. High turnout among Democrats, and exceptional unaffiliated turnout, contributed to the Democratic sweep. Colorado’s massive turnout reflected the strong desire among many voters to send a message to President Trump and Washington; the Democratic Party’s well-funded push for voters, especially the unaffiliated and new voters; and a surfeit of competitive, high-profile statewide and legislative races.
Read The Buzz: Midterm voting starts, record turnout expected
Historically, slightly more than 2 million voters turned out for the 2014 midterm election (71 percent), which had a U.S. Senate race accompanying the usual governor and state constitutional office races. It was a very successful year for Republicans. Republican Cory Gardner won the senate race against incumbent Democrat Mark Udall and Republicans won the three constitutional offices of Attorney General, Treasurer and Secretary of State. They also won one seat in the State Senate and gained control. They lost the governorship with the re-election of John Hickenlooper.
But in this year’s high turnout, Democrats dominated Republicans. Thirty-six thousand more Democrats voted than Republicans, but the surprise was the 878,360 unaffiliated voters, which exceeded Democrats by 29,000 voters. High turnout among Democrats, and exceptional unaffiliated turnout, contributed to the Democratic sweep. Colorado’s massive turnout reflected the strong desire among many voters to send a message to President Trump and Washington; the Democratic Party’s well-funded push for voters, especially the unaffiliated and new voters; and a surfeit of competitive, high-profile statewide and legislative races.
Read The Buzz: Midterm voting starts, record turnout expected
New House Leadership Will Make a Difference
In an opening interview, Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services, makes clear he holds dramatically different views from the current chair, Mac Thornberry of Texas, and in opposition to much of the President’s and the Pentagon’s actions and plans.
More Information
“On issue after issue, they have made conspicuous decisions to roll back transparency and public accountability precisely when we need it most. Remedying this imbalance by bringing back oversight and accountability should be one of Congress’s major defense priorities.”
Leaner Budgets
“…Democrats will cut defense spending if they took power.” “In April, he warned Defense Secretary James Mattis that the Pentagon needed to plan for a lean future.”
Out of Yemen
End U.S. participation in the war in Yemen.
No New Nukes
“The biggest thing for me is I do not agree with diving into a nuclear arms race with Russia and China. The amount of money that we’re proposing to spend on nukes, I think, is both excessive and the wrong policy, without question.”
No Space Force
“What is the most cost-effective way to give space the emphasis it deserves? I know it is not a Space Force.”
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| Rep. Adam Smith | Twitter photo |
More Information
“On issue after issue, they have made conspicuous decisions to roll back transparency and public accountability precisely when we need it most. Remedying this imbalance by bringing back oversight and accountability should be one of Congress’s major defense priorities.”
Leaner Budgets
“…Democrats will cut defense spending if they took power.” “In April, he warned Defense Secretary James Mattis that the Pentagon needed to plan for a lean future.”
Out of Yemen
End U.S. participation in the war in Yemen.
No New Nukes
“The biggest thing for me is I do not agree with diving into a nuclear arms race with Russia and China. The amount of money that we’re proposing to spend on nukes, I think, is both excessive and the wrong policy, without question.”
No Space Force
“What is the most cost-effective way to give space the emphasis it deserves? I know it is not a Space Force.”
Colorado Republicans Swept by Blue Tide
The Denver Post featured my guest commentary as their lead in its Sunday Perspective section. It serves as a bookend to my column of September 14, titled: “Hold on: Political rumblings afoot. Colorado political could be shaken to its core this November.” The cover graphic for Sunday’s column is an elephant exiting out a door with the caption:
Exit right, please: The political divide in Colorado deepened in this election as voters showed a score of Republicans the door,
The 2018 midterm election brought not just a wave but a widening gulf as Americans parted and divided into distinct camps. In Colorado voters rode that swell and moved the state deeper into the blue. While nationally the Democratic wave was not as big as some predicted, it was more than enough to capture control of the U.S. House and deliver the message President Donald Trump and his administration need restraint.
Read The Buzz blog: Colorado politics could be shaken to its core this November
Exit right, please: The political divide in Colorado deepened in this election as voters showed a score of Republicans the door,
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| Jeff Neumann, The Denver Post, photo by Thinkstock by Getty Images |
The 2018 midterm election brought not just a wave but a widening gulf as Americans parted and divided into distinct camps. In Colorado voters rode that swell and moved the state deeper into the blue. While nationally the Democratic wave was not as big as some predicted, it was more than enough to capture control of the U.S. House and deliver the message President Donald Trump and his administration need restraint.
Read The Buzz blog: Colorado politics could be shaken to its core this November
Pelosi: Stay or Go?
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| House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill, Nov. 7, 2018 | J. Scott Applewhite/AP |
Democrats have new power and a mandate from the public to rein in the administration, but how that is done will require great skill. A gaggle of House Committees, all launching investigations with no accompanying legislative strategy, will simply hand President Trump a new image to label Democrats a mob damaging the country and economy. The large freshman class has many liberals anxious to take on the administration and fulfill some of their more controversial constituencies’ desires. The House will be in need of discipline.
As I said to Jeff Barker in the Baltimore Sun after the election:
Among House Democrats, Pelosi “has the arguments of raising money and knowing the system,” Ciruli said. While a faction of the party is calling for new leadership, Pelosi might be appreciated for her ability “to rein in an incredibly tough president without making him look sympathetic,” he said.
Managing a House of 435 members and a caucus of 230 Democrats is very serious work. Pelosi backed up President Obama for six years as Minority leader and took on Trump for two. For all her image baggage, she’s ready.
However, Gallup reports Democrats are ready for a change. By 56 percent to 39 percent, Democrats say it’s time to replace Pelosi. A number of newly elected Democratic congresspersons pledged in their campaigns to not support her for Speaker. A few senior Democrats, like Colorado’s Ed Perlmutter, are trying to organize a challenge. And, of course, Pelosi is a foil for nearly every Republican campaign.
Most likely, Democrats will bring some new faces into leadership. It’s also possible, like John Boehner, she may step down before the next election cycle in 2020, but for now, Democrats should be cautious in this selection.
9NEWS Called Brauchler at 11:00 pm Tuesday
There were few surprises in an election that was mostly called by 8:30 pm Election Night. When Secretary of State Wayne Williams began the night behind, it was the first indicator that the surge of new midterm voters was sending a message, not sorting through the qualifications of candidates.
The only race that remained close, although still with the Democrat ahead, was for Attorney General. At 11:00 pm, as the 9NEWS election team reviewed the night’s show, a voter refresh from the Secretary of State website showed the race separating by another 10,000 votes (George Brauchler was more than 40,000 behind), and knowing that Denver and Boulder were still counting ballots and that Brauchler lost his home county, I called the race. Indeed, final votes trended Democratic, and he won by 148,000.
Phil Weiser immediately announced his victory. Brauchler held out hope, but conceded Wednesday morning. Weiser had a narrow win in his primary, which I called for 9NEWS. He picked a good year and is a lucky politician.
Read:
The Buzz: How Phil Weiser and the AG race was called
Colorado Politics: Election 2018: Democrats win all statewide offices
9News: Democrat Phil Weiser has defeated George Brauchler to become Colorado’s next attorney general
The only race that remained close, although still with the Democrat ahead, was for Attorney General. At 11:00 pm, as the 9NEWS election team reviewed the night’s show, a voter refresh from the Secretary of State website showed the race separating by another 10,000 votes (George Brauchler was more than 40,000 behind), and knowing that Denver and Boulder were still counting ballots and that Brauchler lost his home county, I called the race. Indeed, final votes trended Democratic, and he won by 148,000.
Phil Weiser immediately announced his victory. Brauchler held out hope, but conceded Wednesday morning. Weiser had a narrow win in his primary, which I called for 9NEWS. He picked a good year and is a lucky politician.
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| Colorado attorney general Democrat candidate Phil Weiser and his wife, Dr. Heidi Wald, take the stage after his win during the Democratic watch party in downtown Denver, Nov. 6, 2018 | AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post |
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| Colorado attorney general Republican candidate George Brauchler at the Colorado GOP watch party, Nov. 6, 2018 | Jesse Paul/The Colorado Sun |
Read:
The Buzz: How Phil Weiser and the AG race was called
Colorado Politics: Election 2018: Democrats win all statewide offices
9News: Democrat Phil Weiser has defeated George Brauchler to become Colorado’s next attorney general
Germany is Losing its Center; the EU is Losing its Leader
Angela Merkel’s 13 years of leadership of the Federal Republic is coming to a rapid close. Her center party coalition of conservatives and socialists have lost votes to farther right and left extremists in two state elections in the last month. Merkel was forced to announce she wouldn’t stand for election to lead the Christian Democratic Union in December, a party she has led since 2000. She is hoping to hold onto the chancellorship to have time to groom a replacement. The only question now is who can replace her and lead the center-right coalition?
Her demise began quickly at the very moment global media declared her “Woman of the Year,” reflecting her long reign and leadership on EU issues, such as the Greek debt and Syrian refugees. It was Merkel’s border policy in 2015 that most contributed to the unraveling of her coalition.
It is the EU that may suffer the most due to her loss of power. At the moment, the EU is challenged by nationalist governments from Italy to Hungary and the withdrawal of Britain. Merkel’s prestige and Germany’s economic power are most needed. The Brexit process has drained Prime Minister Theresa May’s influence in Britain and Brussels, and France’s Emmanuel Macron barely registers a 30 percent approval due to a continued sluggish French economy and his domestic political missteps. Macron doesn’t lack ambition to lead, but his stark endorsement of the EU’s liberal model of “open borders, open markets and open societies” is unlikely to gain traction in Europe of 2019.
Her demise began quickly at the very moment global media declared her “Woman of the Year,” reflecting her long reign and leadership on EU issues, such as the Greek debt and Syrian refugees. It was Merkel’s border policy in 2015 that most contributed to the unraveling of her coalition.
It is the EU that may suffer the most due to her loss of power. At the moment, the EU is challenged by nationalist governments from Italy to Hungary and the withdrawal of Britain. Merkel’s prestige and Germany’s economic power are most needed. The Brexit process has drained Prime Minister Theresa May’s influence in Britain and Brussels, and France’s Emmanuel Macron barely registers a 30 percent approval due to a continued sluggish French economy and his domestic political missteps. Macron doesn’t lack ambition to lead, but his stark endorsement of the EU’s liberal model of “open borders, open markets and open societies” is unlikely to gain traction in Europe of 2019.
We are Going to Miss Mattis
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis appears slated to be replaced by President Trump. It has been predicted for several months as his influence appeared to wane with the arrival of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton. Trump signaled it during his October “60 Minutes” interview with Lesley Stahl. He bristled when it was stated Mattis explained the value of NATO. Trump aggressively asserted that he knew “more about it [NATO} than he does.” Trump applied one of his denigrating labels on to Mattis, calling him “sort of a Democrat,” an apparent reference to Mattis’ moderate approach and disagreement with Trump on a number of issues.
Mattis has been the alliance guy, which Trump definitely isn’t. As a lifelong military officer, he understands the value of friends in a fight. His most recent statements in the Persian Gulf (Manama, Bahrain) remind us why he will be missed.
In reference to the Khashoggi case, he reaffirmed the rule of law:
“Failure of any nation to adhere to international norms and the rule of law undermines regional stability at a time when it is needed most.”
He defended the Saudi and other alliances, but based them on trust and honesty:
“We must maintain our strong people-to-people partnership, knowing that with our respect must come transparency and trust…These two principles are vital for ensuring the continued collaboration we know is necessary for a safe, secure and prosperous Middle East.”
Mattis highlighted the importance of opposing Iran’s malevolent influence in the region and the fact Russia is not a substitute for America’s commitment. He argued for stability and unity over chaos and disruption. Not a preference always appreciated by the White House:
“We stand with our partners who favor stability over chaos, and we support unity of effort among our nations’ militaries in response to shared threats and challenges, for in such unity is the real power to set and to maintain peace.”
Mattis has been the alliance guy, which Trump definitely isn’t. As a lifelong military officer, he understands the value of friends in a fight. His most recent statements in the Persian Gulf (Manama, Bahrain) remind us why he will be missed.
In reference to the Khashoggi case, he reaffirmed the rule of law:
“Failure of any nation to adhere to international norms and the rule of law undermines regional stability at a time when it is needed most.”
He defended the Saudi and other alliances, but based them on trust and honesty:
“We must maintain our strong people-to-people partnership, knowing that with our respect must come transparency and trust…These two principles are vital for ensuring the continued collaboration we know is necessary for a safe, secure and prosperous Middle East.”
Mattis highlighted the importance of opposing Iran’s malevolent influence in the region and the fact Russia is not a substitute for America’s commitment. He argued for stability and unity over chaos and disruption. Not a preference always appreciated by the White House:
“We stand with our partners who favor stability over chaos, and we support unity of effort among our nations’ militaries in response to shared threats and challenges, for in such unity is the real power to set and to maintain peace.”
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| President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis in the Cabinet Room of the White House, March 8, 2018 | Michael Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images |
Win or Lose, Trump is Changing the Team
Rumors are rife in D.C. that at least a half dozen cabinet positions will change after the midterm. Most prominently on the departure list is Jeff Sessions, the endlessly disparaged Attorney General.
Changes are also coming to the national security and foreign policy team. Nikki Haley has already announced her departure, and Joseph Dunford, Chair of the Joint Chiefs, is about to leave the position due to the normal rotation.
President Trump appeared to confirm rumors that he had tired of Jim Mattis’ restraints on his many instincts. Trump’s favorite general, who he called “Mad Dog,” a name Mattis doesn’t approve, is now called behind-his-back, “moderate dog.” In Trump’s October 60 Minutes interview, he labeled Mattis “probably a Democrat,” not a term of endearment in the White House. Mattis claims he’s not leaving, but…
Chief of Staff John Kelly’s deputy, Kirstjen Nielsen, who became Secretary of Homeland Security, has a thankless job, and indeed, Trump doesn’t thank her. She’s on the rumor list. Kelly, of course, always looks somewhat uncomfortable in his job.
Changes are also coming to the national security and foreign policy team. Nikki Haley has already announced her departure, and Joseph Dunford, Chair of the Joint Chiefs, is about to leave the position due to the normal rotation.
President Trump appeared to confirm rumors that he had tired of Jim Mattis’ restraints on his many instincts. Trump’s favorite general, who he called “Mad Dog,” a name Mattis doesn’t approve, is now called behind-his-back, “moderate dog.” In Trump’s October 60 Minutes interview, he labeled Mattis “probably a Democrat,” not a term of endearment in the White House. Mattis claims he’s not leaving, but…
Chief of Staff John Kelly’s deputy, Kirstjen Nielsen, who became Secretary of Homeland Security, has a thankless job, and indeed, Trump doesn’t thank her. She’s on the rumor list. Kelly, of course, always looks somewhat uncomfortable in his job.
Since 2016, Leaders of Western Democracy Have Been Turned Out
In a December 2016 blog, I wrote:
The crises for the EU and the Western Alliance appear life-threatening and the struggle of survival is not going well for the advocates of the liberal Democratic ideal.
David Cameron is gone; Matteo Renzi just defeated; Francois Hollande dropped out; and Barack Obama’s term is up and legacy, including globalism, is slipping away. Only Angela Merkel is left to defend the alliance, and her hold has been weakened.
After a year of political turmoil and two recent weak state election results, Angela Merkel is now politically gone and only barely hanging onto the German chancellorship. Prime Minister Theresa May, who replaced David Cameron, is unlikely to lead her party into another election, and Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has an approval rating below 30 percent.
The EU and Western alliance are even more threatened today than in 2016 in the face of President Trump and a gaggle of nationalists assuming power in Europe and around the world.
The crises for the EU and the Western Alliance appear life-threatening and the struggle of survival is not going well for the advocates of the liberal Democratic ideal.
David Cameron is gone; Matteo Renzi just defeated; Francois Hollande dropped out; and Barack Obama’s term is up and legacy, including globalism, is slipping away. Only Angela Merkel is left to defend the alliance, and her hold has been weakened.
After a year of political turmoil and two recent weak state election results, Angela Merkel is now politically gone and only barely hanging onto the German chancellorship. Prime Minister Theresa May, who replaced David Cameron, is unlikely to lead her party into another election, and Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has an approval rating below 30 percent.
The EU and Western alliance are even more threatened today than in 2016 in the face of President Trump and a gaggle of nationalists assuming power in Europe and around the world.
Bolsonaro Wins, Merkel Loses
Sunday is an election day in many countries. Last Sunday, Brazilian voters elected a new president, Jair Bolsonaro, called the Donald Trump of the South. In Hesse state, home of Frankfurt, the German financial capital, voters continued to turn away from Angela Merkel, the European anti-Trump, and her ruling center parties and rewarded more left and right parties.
Both elections reflect a trend of voters looking for alternatives to the status quo, empowering parties and personalities recently seen as fringe and promising to disrupt the establishment. Bolsonaro, whose campaign focused on corruption and crime, joins nationalist in Western Europe now ruling in Italy, Hungary and Poland. He’s on the right, but is similar to Mexico’s newly elected president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is on the political left, but was elected as a similar anti-establishment disrupter attacking corruption and promising more security.
Merkel’s political power is gone and her term will end as soon as her coalition can find an alternative that can help them win an election. But, the likely winners in the next German election will be a mélange of parties making assembling a government even harder than it has been for Merkel the last year.
Both elections reflect a trend of voters looking for alternatives to the status quo, empowering parties and personalities recently seen as fringe and promising to disrupt the establishment. Bolsonaro, whose campaign focused on corruption and crime, joins nationalist in Western Europe now ruling in Italy, Hungary and Poland. He’s on the right, but is similar to Mexico’s newly elected president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is on the political left, but was elected as a similar anti-establishment disrupter attacking corruption and promising more security.
Merkel’s political power is gone and her term will end as soon as her coalition can find an alternative that can help them win an election. But, the likely winners in the next German election will be a mélange of parties making assembling a government even harder than it has been for Merkel the last year.
Mike Coffman: Trump’s First Midterm Casualty?
The Republican Party’s national political action committees have abandoned the campaign for a Republican challenger in Miami. Both the leadership PAC of Speaker Paul Ryan and the official National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have withdrawn millions in TV ads from the race as “beyond reach” (see blog: Mike Coffman Coffman: Out of Reach?).The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, which shows Coffman losing by 9 points, highlights what’s different this time from Coffman’s previous tough re-elections. Coffman has not had to deal with two years of Donald Trump. Nationally, Trump is 8 points under water. In Colorado’s 6th District, he’s 22 points down. The generic ballot test is 8 points toward Democrats nationally, but 14 points negative for Republicans here according to the Times poll.
Coffman, of course, tried to keep his distance from Trump and the Republican House leadership, but Trump’s nonstop blunderbuss simply takes all the space to politically maneuver. Reinforcing this, Democratic advertising in the 6th CD, and in most Colorado state races, ties Republican candidates to Trump as their main message. And, the issues Coffman’s and his Republican colleagues focused on the last two years were of no help. Repeal but not replace on health care, nothing on guns, not even a bump stock ban, and constant dithering on DACA and funding the wall gave Coffman a record to run from, not with in 2018.
Knowing that Colorado’s 6th CD could help put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker’s Chair, Democrats recruited a strong candidate in Jason Crow, and then loaded him with millions in financing. Even before the latest loss of funding, Crow had a $2 million advantage over Coffman with out-of-state money, which by the second week of October was a record $19.8 million in reported expenditures.
Coffman continues to run an aggressive campaign, and just received the Denver Post’s endorsement, which he has regularly won, but it appears this seat is going to contribute to the Democrats’ run for control of the House. If Coffman loses, the 6th CD will be a clear example that Donald J. Trump is a liability and not an asset for Republicans in many swing districts.
Friday, October 19, 2018
Midterm Elections 2018 Results: What Policy Changes are Likely?
Date: 11/7/2018
Time: 5:00 PM to 7:00 PM
Location: Maglione Hall (5th Floor)
Ambassador Christopher Hill and Professor Floyd Ciruli reprise their popular post-election analyses of the November results and its domestic and international effects on November 7 in Maglione Hall.
The post-election session will review the midterm results, the possible end of one-party control of the federal government and the likelihood of impeachment. Also, the impact, if any, on America First, and President Trump’s trade, immigration and alliance policies. How will the results align with international trends of populism, nationalism and authoritarianism?
REGISTER here
Time: 5:00 PM to 7:00 PM
Location: Maglione Hall (5th Floor)
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| RealClearPolitics 2018 |
The post-election session will review the midterm results, the possible end of one-party control of the federal government and the likelihood of impeachment. Also, the impact, if any, on America First, and President Trump’s trade, immigration and alliance policies. How will the results align with international trends of populism, nationalism and authoritarianism?
REGISTER here
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Lock Him Up
Although President Trump likes the rally chant, “lock her up,” aimed at women he finds irritating, such as Hillary Clinton and Dianne Feinstein, it’s Trump who may be locked up (figuratively) after November 6. History and polls confirm what Trump himself argues, this midterm election is all about Trump. And, if Democrats take the House, they will have a mandate to restrain what I call the “Authoritarian Presidency” (see blog Authoritarian Presidency).
Trump’s and the Republicans’ main election weakness is the desire of a plurality of voters to put up restraints on his presidency, not encourage it. Of course, that corresponds to decades of experience where it’s the out-of-power party that is most motivated to containing newly elected presidents, such as Ronald Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010.
The second problem for Republican candidates is that the swing voters who have reservations about Trump aren’t in a revolt over policy, but his personality. In other words, citing accomplishments and the great economy is undermined by his relentless disruption of the status quo and need for attention expressed in endless commentary, interviews, announcements and tweets (72% say he Tweets too much, 58% of Republicans, Politico, 5-18)
Hence, the 2018 midterm is either going to be an extraordinary victory for Trump if the Democrats fail to take the House or the beginning of “locking him up.”
Q: Would you rather see the next Congress controlled by the Democrats, to act as a check on Trump, or controlled by the Republicans to support Trump’s agenda? (ABC News/Washington Post)
Q: [Respondents who disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job, N=499] Is your disapproval of Trump’s job so far driven more by the positions he takes on issues or more by his personality and leadership qualities? (CNN/SSRS)
See Politico: Poll: Trump’s tweets damage the nation
Trump’s and the Republicans’ main election weakness is the desire of a plurality of voters to put up restraints on his presidency, not encourage it. Of course, that corresponds to decades of experience where it’s the out-of-power party that is most motivated to containing newly elected presidents, such as Ronald Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010.
The second problem for Republican candidates is that the swing voters who have reservations about Trump aren’t in a revolt over policy, but his personality. In other words, citing accomplishments and the great economy is undermined by his relentless disruption of the status quo and need for attention expressed in endless commentary, interviews, announcements and tweets (72% say he Tweets too much, 58% of Republicans, Politico, 5-18)
Hence, the 2018 midterm is either going to be an extraordinary victory for Trump if the Democrats fail to take the House or the beginning of “locking him up.”
Q: Would you rather see the next Congress controlled by the Democrats, to act as a check on Trump, or controlled by the Republicans to support Trump’s agenda? (ABC News/Washington Post)
Q: [Respondents who disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job, N=499] Is your disapproval of Trump’s job so far driven more by the positions he takes on issues or more by his personality and leadership qualities? (CNN/SSRS)
See Politico: Poll: Trump’s tweets damage the nation
The Authoritarian Presidency
As Richard Nixon faced his Watergate accusers after his landslide 1972 re-election, critics had already established an intellectual theme, the Imperial Presidency, that appeared in scholarly journals, books and guest editorials. It urged action to tame his administration’s behavior.
After his resignation and pardon, the 1974 midterm elections brought 43 new Democrats to the House and three more to the Senate, setting the stage for new legislation to constrain the Nixon administration’s long described rogue behavior. The War Power Act was passed (before the resignation), along with dozens of laws related to elections and abuse of power, such as the Federal Elections Commission and Freedom of Information Act. To help strengthen congressional oversight, the Congressional Budget Office was created. The growth of presidential power was slowed.
Similar to the 1970s, an entire publishing industry has been established critiquing President Trump’s abuse of power and danger to democracy. Google the term “Trump and fascism” or “authoritarianism” and see dozens of citations to popular and academic references. The intellectual framework is in place to limit the Authoritarian Presidency. If the Democrats win the House in the 2018 midterm, it will reflect a desire by voters to put some side rails on the Trump presidency. Discussions have already begun about which House committees would be involved, what issues addressed and the timing and process to follow.
Reporter Jeff Barker in the Baltimore Sun, hometown paper of Elijah Cummings, described the 22-year congressional veteran who could replace retiring Republican Trey Gowdy as Chair of the powerful Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which was a scourge of the Obama administration under Darrell Issa and now works equally hard to protect Trump
Cummings, as a ranking minority member, has already requested subpoenas for subjects related to immigrant family separation, security clearances and patient protection, such as pre-existing conditions. A few of the topics discussed among staffs and members include:
One issue the Cummings and Democratic House leadership wants to avoid is impeachment. As I told Barker:
“The risk of talking about impeachment is to scare off moderates, suburbanites, independents who would like a little relief from the level of bitter partisanship and the unbelievable gridlock,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Colorado-based independent pollster. “Their problem is, Mueller may come in with true high crimes and misdemeanors.”
If Mueller presented impeachment-worthy evidence, Ciruli said, the Democrats could get dragged into a debate “in spite of their leadership.”
After his resignation and pardon, the 1974 midterm elections brought 43 new Democrats to the House and three more to the Senate, setting the stage for new legislation to constrain the Nixon administration’s long described rogue behavior. The War Power Act was passed (before the resignation), along with dozens of laws related to elections and abuse of power, such as the Federal Elections Commission and Freedom of Information Act. To help strengthen congressional oversight, the Congressional Budget Office was created. The growth of presidential power was slowed.
Similar to the 1970s, an entire publishing industry has been established critiquing President Trump’s abuse of power and danger to democracy. Google the term “Trump and fascism” or “authoritarianism” and see dozens of citations to popular and academic references. The intellectual framework is in place to limit the Authoritarian Presidency. If the Democrats win the House in the 2018 midterm, it will reflect a desire by voters to put some side rails on the Trump presidency. Discussions have already begun about which House committees would be involved, what issues addressed and the timing and process to follow.
Reporter Jeff Barker in the Baltimore Sun, hometown paper of Elijah Cummings, described the 22-year congressional veteran who could replace retiring Republican Trey Gowdy as Chair of the powerful Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which was a scourge of the Obama administration under Darrell Issa and now works equally hard to protect Trump
Cummings, as a ranking minority member, has already requested subpoenas for subjects related to immigrant family separation, security clearances and patient protection, such as pre-existing conditions. A few of the topics discussed among staffs and members include:
One issue the Cummings and Democratic House leadership wants to avoid is impeachment. As I told Barker:
“The risk of talking about impeachment is to scare off moderates, suburbanites, independents who would like a little relief from the level of bitter partisanship and the unbelievable gridlock,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Colorado-based independent pollster. “Their problem is, Mueller may come in with true high crimes and misdemeanors.”
If Mueller presented impeachment-worthy evidence, Ciruli said, the Democrats could get dragged into a debate “in spite of their leadership.”
Monday, September 24, 2018
Midterm Election: Who Controls Congress? What Happens Next?
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| A record crowd of more than 250 people joined Hill and Ciruli after the surprise 2016 election to review the polling and forecasting and the national and international fallout. |
5-7 pm, Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Maglione Hall, University of Denver Campus
Anna and John J. Sie International Relations Complex
2201 S. Gaylord St., Denver, CO
5:00 pm: Reception
5:30 pm: Presentation and conversation
6:15 pm: Discussion
Event FREE, but space limited
For more information, contact: Karen Hayden at 303.871.4374 or email to Karen.Hayden@du.edu
Sponsored by:
Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research
Office of Global Engagement
Korbel School at University of Denver
Friday, September 14, 2018
Is Colorado’s Governor’s Race Competitive?
Republicans are at risk to lose some governorships in the 2018 midterm elections, which could affect the presidential reelection and have a negative impact on redistricting after the 2020 census. Republicans have 26 seats to defend with only 19 held by Democrats in the election.
States
Republicans are on the defensive in a number of states, including Florida, Ohio and Illinois. One open seat they would like to win is Colorado. Outside observers, like Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia on CNBC and Louis Jacobson of Governing Magazine, continue to rate Colorado as competitive.
They recognize the state has shifted slightly Democratic to the benefit of Jared Polis (see “Polis Begins Campaign in Strong Position”), but they are assuming that a nominee with as liberal a reputation as he has is going to be vulnerable to a reasonably competitive opponent and campaign.
Neither the Polis or Republican Walker Stapleton campaigns have really started, but each side’s supporters have launched initial attacks, with Republicans (the National Republican Governor’s Association) warning of “Californicating” Colorado and Democrats arguing Walker Stapleton is a pawn of Donald Trump and friend of Tom Tancredo.
Polis is an advocate of a single-payer health care system, an opponent of gas and oil fracking, and a high-profile advocate of gay rights and the legalization of recreational use of marijuana – a comfortable agenda for a Boulder congressman and likely a majority of Colorado Democrats. But historically, or even in recent history, putting it all together in one candidate would be a tough sell for the state.
However, at the end of August in the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats appear to have the advantage.
Read:
The Buzz: If it’s Stapleton vs. Polis, who wins?
CNBC: With 36 governorships up for grabs in midterm elections, Republicans have most to lose
States
Republicans are on the defensive in a number of states, including Florida, Ohio and Illinois. One open seat they would like to win is Colorado. Outside observers, like Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia on CNBC and Louis Jacobson of Governing Magazine, continue to rate Colorado as competitive.
They recognize the state has shifted slightly Democratic to the benefit of Jared Polis (see “Polis Begins Campaign in Strong Position”), but they are assuming that a nominee with as liberal a reputation as he has is going to be vulnerable to a reasonably competitive opponent and campaign.
Neither the Polis or Republican Walker Stapleton campaigns have really started, but each side’s supporters have launched initial attacks, with Republicans (the National Republican Governor’s Association) warning of “Californicating” Colorado and Democrats arguing Walker Stapleton is a pawn of Donald Trump and friend of Tom Tancredo.
Polis is an advocate of a single-payer health care system, an opponent of gas and oil fracking, and a high-profile advocate of gay rights and the legalization of recreational use of marijuana – a comfortable agenda for a Boulder congressman and likely a majority of Colorado Democrats. But historically, or even in recent history, putting it all together in one candidate would be a tough sell for the state.
However, at the end of August in the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats appear to have the advantage.
Read:
The Buzz: If it’s Stapleton vs. Polis, who wins?
CNBC: With 36 governorships up for grabs in midterm elections, Republicans have most to lose
National Dashboard: Consensus Builds, Democrats Have Momentum for a Majority
After a dilatory spring when polls and signs were weak (see “Blue Wave or Just a Ripple”), Democrats have regained the momentum for retaking the House of Representatives. In fact, even Mike Coffman’s seat is now rated a toss-up with a Democratic lean by Nate Silver’s 538.
Some of the data:
This also is an especially tough year on incumbents. The President is better at primaries
than general elections and at dividing his party than defending it, so an establishment
incumbent suffers from both being associated with a controversial president and possibly
not having his full support.
Many Republican supporters of the President (although few in the Republican establishment and officeholders) have taken to accept the analyses and argue losing the House will be good for the President’s re-election. He will win voter sympathy, like Bill Clinton in 1998, as the Democrats ramp up multiple investigations and impeachment.
But, the President doesn’t agree. He has committed to 40 campaign appearances this fall. He believes he can personally hold the Republican House. That’s a good call because, in fact, loss of the House will be a very negative judgement on his first two years, mostly end any legislative accomplishments, drain his political power and embolden the Republican establishment to start putting distance between him and their careers.
Some of the data:
- Presidential approval remains in the low 40s and mired in negative territory. Strong disapproval is 10 to 15 points larger than strong approval in polls that ask the intensity feelings (Gallup, May 2018). Historically, low presidential approval tends, although not always, to accompany major losses for the presidential party.
- Congressional ballot question is at 7 points in the RealClearPolitics average and substantially higher in some recent polls. CNN/SSRS poll of August 12 has an 11-point spread in favor of the Democrats. Reuters/Ipsos and Quinnipiac have it at 9 points. Nate Silver’s analysis states that at least 8 points will be needed to overcome anomalies in voter distribution in House seats for the Democrats to win.
- Midterms, especially the first for a new president, tend to be restraining. Opponents are enthusiastic and supporters less impassioned than two years earlier. Ronald Reagan in 1992, Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010 lost an average of 47 seats among the three of them. George W. Bush was an exception due to 9/11 making the election a referendum on fighting terrorism and national unity.
This also is an especially tough year on incumbents. The President is better at primaries
than general elections and at dividing his party than defending it, so an establishment
incumbent suffers from both being associated with a controversial president and possibly
not having his full support.
- Special elections have given Democrats only one victory. But, out of nine elections, they have benefited from a 10-point shift toward them even while losing. If that trend holds up in the midterms, they could win more than 60 competitive and near competitive seats.
- A strong economy is a Republican advantage, but as the economy has improved, voters have shifted attention to other issues, such as health care, that benefit Democrats and immigration that stirs up the base of both parties. Unfortunately for Republicans, Trump often steps on good news with controversial tweets.
- District by district analyses by Silver, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato agree that the odds are favoring Democrats to gain at least 23 seats and possibly more. Silver puts the chance at 3 out of 4.
Many Republican supporters of the President (although few in the Republican establishment and officeholders) have taken to accept the analyses and argue losing the House will be good for the President’s re-election. He will win voter sympathy, like Bill Clinton in 1998, as the Democrats ramp up multiple investigations and impeachment.
But, the President doesn’t agree. He has committed to 40 campaign appearances this fall. He believes he can personally hold the Republican House. That’s a good call because, in fact, loss of the House will be a very negative judgement on his first two years, mostly end any legislative accomplishments, drain his political power and embolden the Republican establishment to start putting distance between him and their careers.
Health Care Top Issue, Especially for Women
Health care registers as the second most important issue in numerous surveys just after jobs and the economy, which the public is increasingly satisfied with. It is the top issue for women, and women are a challenge for Republicans in the 2018 midterms.
According to a recent CBS News poll (8-13-18), health care ranked first by both younger (18-35) and older women (over 35) when asked what issue will be very important in their vote for Congress. Also, 68 percent of women said the candidate must agree with them on the issue to get their vote. It should be noted that the economy becomes a less useful issue for Republicans as it improves. Health care then becomes a greater interest for voters, especially women.
Health care will be especially important in the Colorado gubernatorial race, with Jared Polis having supported the single-payer “Medicare for All” proposal of Bernie Sanders and Walker Stapleton a strong opponent.
Regardless of pro or con views on single-payer, what the candidates plan to do related to access and affordability of health care may be a deciding issue, especially for women.
According to a recent CBS News poll (8-13-18), health care ranked first by both younger (18-35) and older women (over 35) when asked what issue will be very important in their vote for Congress. Also, 68 percent of women said the candidate must agree with them on the issue to get their vote. It should be noted that the economy becomes a less useful issue for Republicans as it improves. Health care then becomes a greater interest for voters, especially women.
Health care will be especially important in the Colorado gubernatorial race, with Jared Polis having supported the single-payer “Medicare for All” proposal of Bernie Sanders and Walker Stapleton a strong opponent.
Regardless of pro or con views on single-payer, what the candidates plan to do related to access and affordability of health care may be a deciding issue, especially for women.
Colorado to Get a New Congressional Seat. Where Will it Land?
Mark Harden in Colorado Politics reports that Colorado is one of the six states expected to pick up a House seat after the decennial census in 2020. It won’t affect the 2020 presidential electoral distribution, but the next Trump-like candidate will have fewer electoral votes in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to depend upon, but more in Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
Colorado’s Front Range has been in a rapid growth mode this decade and will likely get the most benefit of the new seat, but the configuration of all seven existing seats will change.
The fastest growing metro counties of Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas should see an increase in representation, but Denver, Larimer and El Paso have also been rapidly growing and can expect to be in the competition for a piece of the eighth seat.
In November, Colorado voters will decide upon a new, less partisan procedure to reapportion the state. But regardless of the system, the interests of incumbents, new aspirants, counties, cities and communities of interest will be in fierce competition.
Assuming Colorado’s growth continues at the current rate, another 140,000 residents can be expected between now and the 2020 census, raising the total population to 5.8 million. That would create eight House districts of about 730,000 persons in each. In 2020, the seven existing House districts would average 829,000 residents in each. According to 2016 census estimates, the 1st CD (DeGette) and the 6th CD (Coffman) had the largest populations and the 3rd CD (Tipton) the least, but all seven districts will need to shed upwards of 100,000 residents to create the new district.
Colorado’s Front Range has been in a rapid growth mode this decade and will likely get the most benefit of the new seat, but the configuration of all seven existing seats will change.
The fastest growing metro counties of Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas should see an increase in representation, but Denver, Larimer and El Paso have also been rapidly growing and can expect to be in the competition for a piece of the eighth seat.
In November, Colorado voters will decide upon a new, less partisan procedure to reapportion the state. But regardless of the system, the interests of incumbents, new aspirants, counties, cities and communities of interest will be in fierce competition.
Assuming Colorado’s growth continues at the current rate, another 140,000 residents can be expected between now and the 2020 census, raising the total population to 5.8 million. That would create eight House districts of about 730,000 persons in each. In 2020, the seven existing House districts would average 829,000 residents in each. According to 2016 census estimates, the 1st CD (DeGette) and the 6th CD (Coffman) had the largest populations and the 3rd CD (Tipton) the least, but all seven districts will need to shed upwards of 100,000 residents to create the new district.
Americans Believe Race Relations Have Worsened in Trump Era, But Divided Over Who’s Most Threatened
By 57 percent to 15 percent, Americans believe race relations are worse 18 months into the Trump administration than during the Obama presidency. Respondents rated relations under Barack Obama’s term 38 percent better to 37 percent worse.
The poll conducted in early August and reported by Larry Sabato for the University of Virginia Center for Politics also highlighted many of the divisions and anxieties about race and race relations that affect Americans. For example, super majorities adhere to American ideals that all races are equal (82% agree), all races should be treated equally (91% agree), and all races should be free to live where they choose (86%).
But, significant portions of the population support some of the “alt-right’s” often expressed positions. For example, America must protect its White European heritage (35% agree) and White people are currently under attack in their county (43% agree). Still, a strong majority support protecting multicultural heritages (82% agree). Also, a larger percentage of Americans believe racial minorities are under attack (57%) than believe Whites are under threat (43%).
Although extremists who trade in these race-based appeals don’t marshal much support (Neo-Nazis – 5% support, White Nationalists – 8%, Alt-right – 7%) – witness the recent Charlottesville anniversary activities in D.C. and Charlottesville – there is a group of Americans who are anxious about the status of Whites and can be politically mobilized.
The poll conducted in early August and reported by Larry Sabato for the University of Virginia Center for Politics also highlighted many of the divisions and anxieties about race and race relations that affect Americans. For example, super majorities adhere to American ideals that all races are equal (82% agree), all races should be treated equally (91% agree), and all races should be free to live where they choose (86%).
But, significant portions of the population support some of the “alt-right’s” often expressed positions. For example, America must protect its White European heritage (35% agree) and White people are currently under attack in their county (43% agree). Still, a strong majority support protecting multicultural heritages (82% agree). Also, a larger percentage of Americans believe racial minorities are under attack (57%) than believe Whites are under threat (43%).
Although extremists who trade in these race-based appeals don’t marshal much support (Neo-Nazis – 5% support, White Nationalists – 8%, Alt-right – 7%) – witness the recent Charlottesville anniversary activities in D.C. and Charlottesville – there is a group of Americans who are anxious about the status of Whites and can be politically mobilized.
Monday, September 10, 2018
WSJ of Two Minds – Tuesday’s Special Election
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| President Trump speaks at a rally, August 4, 2018, in Lewis Center, Ohio | John Minchillo/Associated Press |
Karl Rove, a regular columnist, offered the Republican establishment’s take and declared good news. Troy Balderson won after rumors of a likely defeat circulated and Republicans poured resources and pressed President Trump into the fight. Rove isn’t Pollyannish. He doesn’t see a “great red wave,” but he thinks in spite of the likely losses, Republicans “have a fighting chance to keep their majority.”
The WSJ’s house editorial, “The ‘Red Wave’ Illusion,” takes a harder line on Republican prospects based on the Ohio and overall Tuesday results. It believes President Trump is more the problem than the solution. “Voters dislike Mr. Trump’s abrasive style and polarizing governance.”
They cite Republican pollster, Ed Goeas, analyses: Trump has solidly behind him about 75 percent of voters who approve of him (about 31% to 34%) and another 10-11 percent willing to tolerate him. But, that sums to 44-45 percent approval and it can’t win a general election. Another 10 percent like some of what he does, but object to the chaos and rancor (see The Buzz: “In 2018, America’s Two Parties Have a lot of Stress” and “Trump Loses a Fifth of Republicans in Handling Helsinki”). Tuesday provided more evidence of Trump as much of a liability in a general election as an asset.
Both columns cite the metrics of Charles Cook and Larry Sabato that place more than 50 Republican House seats in harm’s way. These are Republican districts that have lower Republican partisan leanings than Mr. Balderson’s Ohio seat.
- Ohio 12th Democrats ran 6.1 points better than the districts’ partisan lean (Cook’s calculation)
- In special House election since November 2018, Democrats have bested the partisan lean by 5.1 points (Rove)
- Cook and Sabato rate approximately 50 at-risk House members in seats with equal or less Republican lean (Rove)
- WSJ states 68 Republican held seats are less Republican than Ohio’s 12th, with lots of suburbs, which Democrats won two-to-one in Ohio,
Overturning Roe v. Wade is Non-starter for Public
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| Judge Brett Kavanaugh | Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call |
Kavanaugh’s own pre-confirmation favorability is weak. About a third (32%) of voters support Kavanaugh’s nomination and 26 percent oppose it, a net positive of 6 points. Similar, but lower than Neil Gorsuch’s net 12 points in 2017. Abortion is one of the issues that will help shape opinion about the new judge.
It could also produce a crisis of public opinion for the reputation of the Supreme Court, which has managed to hang onto some modicum of credibility in these polarized days. Currently, the assumption is that fidelity to “precedent” or “stare decisis” will be sufficient to buffer a judge who believes Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided. And, the informed public tends to believe even a pro-life majority will continue to decide abortion cases around the margins of more allowances for restrictions or less tolerance for state support. But, a powerful hostile reaction lurks if a direct assault is made and abortion loses its constitutional protection.
Support includes: 88 percent of Democrats, 76 percent of independents and 52 percent of Republicans.
Friday, September 7, 2018
In 2018, America’s Two Parties Have a Lot of Stress
About three-quarters of American adults say they identify with one of the two main parties, but only a third say they are “strong” Democrats or Republicans. Two-thirds are either moderate or just lean toward their respective parties. Will America’s two parties survive intact the next two years? The establishments of both parties are in frequent conflict with the myriad of interest groups the parties represent.
As pointed out in a previous blog, “Trump Loses a Fifth of Republicans in Handling Helsinki,” President Trump’s Republican support is conditional. Nearly 20 percent of Republicans did not approve of his handling of the Helsinki conference. Also as the blog post described, almost two-thirds of the 82 percent of Republicans who say they approve the president offer “somewhat” or “lean” toward approval (50% strong, 32% somewhat, 3% lean toward approval).
Republican Party coalitions include the Tea Party, evangelicals, MAGA Trumpers and Never Trumpers, ethno nationalists, economic populist, national security hawks, non-interventionist, free trade and establishment Republicans. Many groups overlap, but each group could take a walk if their issue is not well-represented, and some interests are in direct conflict – isolationist vs. internationalists and economic populists vs. free traders. Currently, the most alienated groups are free trade, internationalists and the establishment (often local, state and national officeholders).
Democratic Party stress is currently between the establishment and the hyper-progressive wing, which in 2016 was encapsulated by the Hillary Clinton- Bernie Sanders duel. The argument continues as the party begins to line up its presidential contenders and sort through messages and strategies for the 2018 midterm elections.
Should it endorse single-payer health care, reverse the tax cuts and abolish ICE? Should it focus on winning back the industrial and Midwest or move on to the new South and Southwest?
Although Democrats have the advantage in 2018 due to the midterm sag in presidential party support, some advantage in the number of adherents and the passion opposing President Trump engenders both parties are struggling with unifying for the election. The rule currently being followed is to find some sort of outrage and target it. It will make for an ugly election.
As pointed out in a previous blog, “Trump Loses a Fifth of Republicans in Handling Helsinki,” President Trump’s Republican support is conditional. Nearly 20 percent of Republicans did not approve of his handling of the Helsinki conference. Also as the blog post described, almost two-thirds of the 82 percent of Republicans who say they approve the president offer “somewhat” or “lean” toward approval (50% strong, 32% somewhat, 3% lean toward approval).
Republican Party coalitions include the Tea Party, evangelicals, MAGA Trumpers and Never Trumpers, ethno nationalists, economic populist, national security hawks, non-interventionist, free trade and establishment Republicans. Many groups overlap, but each group could take a walk if their issue is not well-represented, and some interests are in direct conflict – isolationist vs. internationalists and economic populists vs. free traders. Currently, the most alienated groups are free trade, internationalists and the establishment (often local, state and national officeholders).
Democratic Party stress is currently between the establishment and the hyper-progressive wing, which in 2016 was encapsulated by the Hillary Clinton- Bernie Sanders duel. The argument continues as the party begins to line up its presidential contenders and sort through messages and strategies for the 2018 midterm elections.
Should it endorse single-payer health care, reverse the tax cuts and abolish ICE? Should it focus on winning back the industrial and Midwest or move on to the new South and Southwest?
Although Democrats have the advantage in 2018 due to the midterm sag in presidential party support, some advantage in the number of adherents and the passion opposing President Trump engenders both parties are struggling with unifying for the election. The rule currently being followed is to find some sort of outrage and target it. It will make for an ugly election.
Tuesday, August 7, 2018
Denver Post – Hickenlooper Looks for Presidential Run Support
Governor John Hickenlooper has been shifting his political attention to Washington D.C. since 2016 when he competed to become Hillary Clinton’s vice president. As he closes out the last six months of his 13-year Colorado political career, the 2020 presidential election is his focus. Can he find some support among current and former fellow governors, the D.C. and New York media establishment, some of the belt way PACs and money handlers? The Democratic Party may have a need for an outlier with a strong economic track record, but is there any room in the candidate and issue space that appears dominated by the left-leaning resistance?
In a Denver Post column, I review his political strengths and weaknesses as he pursues his national ambition.
In a Denver Post column, I review his political strengths and weaknesses as he pursues his national ambition.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
“Diplotainment” in Helsinki – A Chorus of Boos
President Trump believes Helsinki was a great show: vintage Trump, celebrity actors, a world stage and nuclear holocaust at stake. But by the time he got Airforce One off the ground, the reviews came in and they weren’t good. They said he looked weak, he blamed his own country first, and he repeatedly praised the autocrat and sided with him against his own team.
Trump was surprised at the sweeping, speedy chorus of boos. “Diplotainment” had worked so well in Singapore. The script was to approach the event in a nonchalant fashion, hype the significance, then stage the handshake, the secret meeting, the press conference and rush to the airport to bask in the reviews. Unfortunately, after a few weeks, it became clear nothing significant will happen, without much arduous negotiation in a multitude of meetings, the end point and result undetermined.
In Singapore, Kim Jong-un got his recognition as a world actor, he appeared reasonable, he gave up nothing discernable (the weak joint statement seemed to codify that), he improved his position with China and Russia, and he weakened the urgency of the sanctions regime.
The next Russian summit, which was just wisely cancelled, was launched in the same pattern – no preparation and no coordination within the U.S. government. The difference between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin is that Putin, wily tactician, is working every day to weaken and divide the democratic West. What the West needs is a negotiator who is worried less about reviews and more about the results.
Read The Buzz: “Diplotainment” crashes in Korea
Trump was surprised at the sweeping, speedy chorus of boos. “Diplotainment” had worked so well in Singapore. The script was to approach the event in a nonchalant fashion, hype the significance, then stage the handshake, the secret meeting, the press conference and rush to the airport to bask in the reviews. Unfortunately, after a few weeks, it became clear nothing significant will happen, without much arduous negotiation in a multitude of meetings, the end point and result undetermined.
 |
| President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korea leader Kim Jong-un at summit in Singapore, June 12, 2018 | Evan Vucci/AP |
The next Russian summit, which was just wisely cancelled, was launched in the same pattern – no preparation and no coordination within the U.S. government. The difference between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin is that Putin, wily tactician, is working every day to weaken and divide the democratic West. What the West needs is a negotiator who is worried less about reviews and more about the results.
 |
| President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold press conference after their one-on-one meeting in Helsinki, Finland, July 16, 2018 | Photo RanttMedia |
Read The Buzz: “Diplotainment” crashes in Korea
Trump Loses a Fifth of Republicans in Handling Helsinki
The latest CBS national poll shows only 32 percent of Americans approved of President Trump’s handling of the Helsinki summit. That is an exceptionally poor rating for a major foreign policy performance (Washington Post poll – 33%). An even bigger problem for Trump is that only 68 percent of Republicans approved his performance (66% in Washington Post poll). The history of Trump’s controversies suggests his approval rating won’t be affected, but the worldwide media coverage was significant and the broad judgement that his performance was weak may produce a longer-term effect.
Trump’s overall approval depends on about 85 percent of Republicans (87% in Washington Post poll), so Helsinki’s 68 percent is a loss of about 20 points of support, or about a fifth of self-identified Republican partisans. This drop-off highlights two facts. First, there are Republicans who can be persuaded to withdrawal approval of Trump’s behavior. Second, the Republican label is held by a variety of partisan groupings, including evangelicals, Tea Party, old-line establishment, forever Trump and never Trump to just name a few. For some, affection for Trump is primarily a policy preference (tax cuts, Supreme Court appointments) and an aversion to the alternative (Hillary Clinton most recently).
As the Helsinki approval table below (from Washington Post data) shows, Republicans only represent about a quarter of the electorate and Trump can ill-afford to lose any.
Other polls that show lower percentages of independents and more Republicans still require super majorities of Republicans approving Trump to maintain his anemic approval rating of 42 to 45 percent.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll graphically shows the Republicans’ vulnerability to Trump’s periodic missteps. Out of the 82 percent Republican support, they record 50 percent “strong” approval, but 32 percent “somewhat” approve (note: another 3% “lean toward” approval). Nearly two-fifths of the party is weakly attached to Trump. Those are the voters who could stay home or walk away from the party.
Trump’s overall approval depends on about 85 percent of Republicans (87% in Washington Post poll), so Helsinki’s 68 percent is a loss of about 20 points of support, or about a fifth of self-identified Republican partisans. This drop-off highlights two facts. First, there are Republicans who can be persuaded to withdrawal approval of Trump’s behavior. Second, the Republican label is held by a variety of partisan groupings, including evangelicals, Tea Party, old-line establishment, forever Trump and never Trump to just name a few. For some, affection for Trump is primarily a policy preference (tax cuts, Supreme Court appointments) and an aversion to the alternative (Hillary Clinton most recently).
As the Helsinki approval table below (from Washington Post data) shows, Republicans only represent about a quarter of the electorate and Trump can ill-afford to lose any.
Other polls that show lower percentages of independents and more Republicans still require super majorities of Republicans approving Trump to maintain his anemic approval rating of 42 to 45 percent.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll graphically shows the Republicans’ vulnerability to Trump’s periodic missteps. Out of the 82 percent Republican support, they record 50 percent “strong” approval, but 32 percent “somewhat” approve (note: another 3% “lean toward” approval). Nearly two-fifths of the party is weakly attached to Trump. Those are the voters who could stay home or walk away from the party.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Political Fault Lines: Age, Gender, Race and Party
Colorado’s politics in 2018 are little different from the country. Voters are divided dramatically along great fault lines of gender, age, race and party.
A recent PPP poll of President Donald Trump’s Colorado approval rating highlights those gaps in public opinion. In the end of June poll, Trump had a 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. As the table below shows, it is polarized along the fault lines of age, gender, race and party.
All of these gaps have been long documented in American politics, but each has become more pronounced, especially in the Trump era.
Party with a 68 percent difference is the most profound, with few partisans in the other party (Democrats) offering approval (12%). Republicans continue to approve of Trump at very high levels (80%). Although, an 18 percent disapproval among Republicans should be worrisome for the party.
The race/ethnic gap has been a fixture of U.S. politics since the 1960s, but the Hispanic/Latino community has only in more recent years become hyper-polarized. Trump, of course, has made ethnicity a repeated campaign issue from the day he announced to his most recent border policies. Only 15 percent of Hispanics/Latinos approve of Trump versus 50 percent of Whites. The sample did not have sufficient African Americans to make an observation, but national polls show their profound polarization.
Recent studies have cited gender polarization at all-time highs, and the 21 percent difference in Colorado is high. Only a third of women approve of Trump’s job performance, but more than half of men do (55%).
Finally, the age polarization between Millennials and seniors is dramatic. Trump draws support from older voters (50% approval), but has little from voters 29 years old and younger (only 31% approval), a 19 percent gap.
A recent PPP poll of President Donald Trump’s Colorado approval rating highlights those gaps in public opinion. In the end of June poll, Trump had a 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval. As the table below shows, it is polarized along the fault lines of age, gender, race and party.
All of these gaps have been long documented in American politics, but each has become more pronounced, especially in the Trump era.
Party with a 68 percent difference is the most profound, with few partisans in the other party (Democrats) offering approval (12%). Republicans continue to approve of Trump at very high levels (80%). Although, an 18 percent disapproval among Republicans should be worrisome for the party.
The race/ethnic gap has been a fixture of U.S. politics since the 1960s, but the Hispanic/Latino community has only in more recent years become hyper-polarized. Trump, of course, has made ethnicity a repeated campaign issue from the day he announced to his most recent border policies. Only 15 percent of Hispanics/Latinos approve of Trump versus 50 percent of Whites. The sample did not have sufficient African Americans to make an observation, but national polls show their profound polarization.
Recent studies have cited gender polarization at all-time highs, and the 21 percent difference in Colorado is high. Only a third of women approve of Trump’s job performance, but more than half of men do (55%).
Finally, the age polarization between Millennials and seniors is dramatic. Trump draws support from older voters (50% approval), but has little from voters 29 years old and younger (only 31% approval), a 19 percent gap.
Polis Begins Campaign in Strong Position
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| Jared Polis | Photo: AP |
Polis’ campaign proposals are expensive and his 10 years in Congress will provide a wealth of
information for opposition research. So, a tough, in the trenches campaign can be expected, but as reported in this blogsite, The Buzz, the voter registration, party enthusiasm and presidential approval favor the Democrats.
- Republicans have lost a 160,000-voter registration advantage in 2000 and are now behind Democrats by 19,000.
- FOX News reports nationally Democrats’ enthusiasm to vote in November is 9 points higher than Republicans (51% to 42%). The generic ballot is 8 points in the Democrats’ favor.
- President Trump has a net 13 points negative approval (42% to 55%) in Colorado, a 17-point drop since January 2017. Voting for and against Trump is a major factor in midterm election voting.
- The most recent primary election had Democrats turning out 54,000 more voters and receiving 65,000 more unaffiliated voter participants (total 119,000 more Democratic voters).
- Finally, a Democratic Party sponsored poll by PPP (reputable robo polling firm) reported Polis with a 7-point lead over Walker Stapleton (47% to 40%). Too early to define the race, but another data point is the Democrats’ starting advantage.
Polis has never had a competitive general election where his reputation, political record and platform are truly tested. In spite of the Democrats’ 2018 advantage, Colorado remains a state with persuadable voters. Can the Republicans mount a campaign that makes the governor’s race competitive?
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