Thursday, November 14, 2019

“Whether you love me or hate me…” – Donald Trump, Aug. 16, 2019

The most recent Sabato Crystal Ball rates the national election a deadlock, with 248 electoral voters each for Trump’s re-election and a generic Democrat. The 42 electoral vote toss-up states are: Arizona (11), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10) (Nebraska 2nd CD). And, other likely battleground states due to their closeness in 2016 and won by Democrats are , Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada. Of course, Trump just claimed New Mexico was a target, which most observers believe is a longshot.

On August 16, Trump brought the road show to New Hampshire, a state that Sabato puts on the “lean Democrat” category due to the President’s repeated low poll approvals. But, the campaign believes he can win it. It was here that Trump announced “Whether you love me or hate me, you have to vote for me” because your financial future will go “down the tubes” without his re-election.

Trump was beginning to recognize that he is ten points behind the Democratic frontrunner and the latest University of New Hampshire poll shows the usual 42 percent approval, 7 points below a 49 percent approval for handling the economy.

Trump is mostly right about the importance of the economy for his re-election. History indicates how important it is to re-election, but in Trump’s case, it also makes up for the fact that his personality is a drag on his approval and re-elect numbers. Trump has the good fortune that in the last 100 years the S&P 500 has been up about twice as often than down, but up 20 percent to 30 percent less frequently. The bigger lift is probably needed by Trump to make up for his grinding personal behavior.

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